Hanea Anca M, Hemming Victoria, Nane Gabriela F
Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Risk Anal. 2022 Feb;42(2):254-263. doi: 10.1111/risa.13718. Epub 2021 Feb 24.
Expert elicitation is deployed when data are absent or uninformative and critical decisions must be made. In designing an expert elicitation, most practitioners seek to achieve best practice while balancing practical constraints. The choices made influence the required time and effort investment, the quality of the elicited data, experts' engagement, the defensibility of results, and the acceptability of resulting decisions. This piece outlines some of the common choices practitioners encounter when designing and conducting an elicitation. We discuss the evidence supporting these decisions and identify research gaps. This will hopefully allow practitioners to better navigate the literature, and will inspire the expert judgment research community to conduct well powered, replicable experiments that properly address the research gaps identified.
当缺乏数据或数据无法提供信息且必须做出关键决策时，会采用专家意见征集法。在设计专家意见征集时，大多数从业者在平衡实际限制的同时，力求达到最佳实践。所做的选择会影响所需的时间和精力投入、征集到的数据质量、专家的参与度、结果的可辩护性以及最终决策的可接受性。本文概述了从业者在设计和进行意见征集时遇到的一些常见选择。我们讨论了支持这些决策的证据，并确定了研究空白。这有望使从业者更好地研读文献，并激励专家判断研究界开展有充分说服力、可重复的实验，以妥善解决所确定的研究空白。
