Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720;
Department of Mathematics, Bucknell University, Lewisburg, PA 17837.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Mar 16;118(11). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2026322118.
Many competing criteria are under consideration for prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Two criteria based on age are demographic: lives saved and years of future life saved. Vaccinating the very old against COVID-19 saves the most lives, but, since older age is accompanied by falling life expectancy, it is widely supposed that these two goals are in conflict. We show this to be mistaken. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality are such that vaccinating the oldest first saves the most lives and, surprisingly, also maximizes years of remaining life expectancy. We demonstrate this relationship empirically in the United States, Germany, and South Korea and with mathematical analysis of life tables. Our age-risk results, under usual conditions, also apply to health risks.
在为优先接种 COVID-19 疫苗制定标准时，有许多相互竞争的标准需要考虑。基于年龄的两个标准是人口统计学方面的：挽救的生命和未来预期寿命的年数。为了预防 COVID-19，老年人接种疫苗可以挽救最多的生命，但是，由于年龄越大，预期寿命越短，人们普遍认为这两个目标是相互冲突的。我们证明这种看法是错误的。COVID-19 死亡率的年龄模式表明，首先为最年长的人接种疫苗可以挽救最多的生命，而且出人意料的是，还可以最大限度地提高剩余预期寿命。我们在美国、德国和韩国进行了实证验证，并通过生命表的数学分析证明了这一关系。在通常情况下，我们的年龄风险结果也适用于健康风险。
