Queen Mary University of London, London E1 4NS, UK.
Imperial College London, London SW7 2BX, UK.
J R Soc Med. 2021 Nov;114(11):513-524. doi: 10.1177/01410768211052589. Epub 2021 Nov 1.
To offer a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of two doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among adolescents in England.
England.
Following the risk-benefit analysis methodology carried out by the US Centers for Disease Control, we calculated historical rates of hospital admission, Intensive Care Unit admission and death for ascertained SARS-CoV-2 cases in children aged 12-17 in England. We then used these rates alongside a range of estimates for incidence of long COVID, vaccine efficacy and vaccine-induced myocarditis, to estimate hospital and Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID over a period of 16 weeks under assumptions of high and low case incidence.
All 12-17 year olds with a record of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in England between 1 July 2020 and 31 March 2021 using national linked electronic health records, accessed through the British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre.
Hospitalisations, Intensive Care Unit admissions, deaths and cases of long COVID averted by vaccinating all 12-17 year olds in England over a 16-week period under different estimates of future case incidence.
At high future case incidence of 1000/100,000 population/week over 16 weeks, vaccination could avert 4430 hospital admissions and 36 deaths over 16 weeks. At the low incidence of 50/100,000/week, vaccination could avert 70 hospital admissions and two deaths over 16 weeks. The benefit of vaccination in terms of hospitalisations in adolescents outweighs risks unless case rates are sustainably very low (below 30/100,000 teenagers/week). Benefit of vaccination exists at any case rate for the outcomes of death and long COVID, since neither have been associated with vaccination to date.
Given the current (as at 15 September 2021) high case rates (680/100,000 population/week in 10-19 year olds) in England, our findings support vaccination of adolescents against SARS-CoV2.
对英国青少年接种两剂 SARS-CoV-2 疫苗的风险-效益进行定量分析。
英格兰。
我们遵循美国疾病控制中心进行的风险-效益分析方法，计算了在英格兰年龄为 12-17 岁的儿童中确诊 SARS-CoV-2 病例的住院、重症监护病房（ICU）入院和死亡的历史发生率。然后，我们使用这些比率以及一系列关于长新冠、疫苗效力和疫苗诱导心肌炎的估计值，在高和低病例发生率的假设下，估计在 16 周内住院和 ICU 入院、死亡和长新冠病例的情况。
所有在 2020 年 7 月 1 日至 2021 年 3 月 31 日期间在英格兰有确诊 SARS-CoV-2 感染记录的 12-17 岁青少年，这些记录通过英国心脏基金会数据科学中心访问国家电子健康记录获得。
在不同未来病例发生率的假设下，在 16 周内为英格兰所有 12-17 岁青少年接种疫苗，可避免 16 周内 4430 例住院、36 例死亡和长新冠病例。在未来病例发生率为 1000/100,000 人/周的低水平下，接种疫苗可避免 16 周内 70 例住院和 2 例死亡。在青少年中，疫苗接种在减少住院方面的益处大于风险，除非病例率持续非常低（每周低于 30/100,000 青少年）。无论病例率如何，疫苗接种都可以降低死亡和长新冠的风险，因为迄今为止，这两种情况都与疫苗接种无关。
鉴于英格兰目前（截至 2021 年 9 月 15 日）的高病例率（10-19 岁人群中每周 680/100,000 人），我们的研究结果支持为青少年接种 SARS-CoV-2 疫苗。
