Department of Biology, College of Education, University of Sulaimani, Sulaimani, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.
Environ Monit Assess. 2021 Feb 26;193(3):148. doi: 10.1007/s10661-021-08959-6.
Land use/land cover (LULC) change is an important indicator used for assessing the function and health of ecosystems. Understanding the patterns of LULC change assists in managing natural resources effectively, especially for regions where there are minimal or no reported data on the status of LULC. In this study, remotely sensed Landsat satellite imagery from 5 years (i.e., 1988, 1996, 2002, 2008, and 2017), geographic information systems (GIS), and the hybrid cellular automata (CA)-Markov model were used to (i) quantify the past and present LULC changes and (ii) model the future changes in Sulaimani Province in the Kurdistan region of Iraq (KRI). To accomplish these objectives, five LULC maps with various class categories were generated using the maximum likelihood classifier (MCL). The classified maps for 1996, 2002, 2008, and 2017 were used in the hybrid model to simulate LULC maps for 2017 and 2037. The map simulated for 2017 was validated with the classified 2017 LULC map. The change analysis demonstrated that between 1988 and 2017, the built-up areas and agricultural fallow land increased by 419% and 226%, respectively. In the future predictions for 2037, built-up areas and agricultural fallow land showed increasing trends of 5.5% and 26.5%, respectively. In contrast, agricultural land, plantation land, and sparse vegetation areas were predicted to decrease by 29.4%, 65.8%, and 36.9%, respectively. In addition, in 2008, waterbodies shrank by 43.36% in comparison with their status in 1988, suggesting that 2008 was a severe drought year. These findings provide invaluable baseline information with which conservation biologists, agricultural engineers, urban planners, and decision makers can better manage natural resources and monitor environmental changes. Based on these results, sustainable development actions and an early warning system can be established.
土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）变化是评估生态系统功能和健康的重要指标。了解 LULC 变化的模式有助于有效地管理自然资源，特别是在那些关于 LULC 状况的报告数据很少或没有的地区。在这项研究中，使用了 5 年的遥感陆地卫星图像（即 1988 年、1996 年、2002 年、2008 年和 2017 年）、地理信息系统（GIS）和混合元胞自动机（CA）-马尔可夫模型，以（i）量化过去和现在的 LULC 变化，（ii）模拟伊拉克库尔德地区苏莱曼尼省（KRI）的未来变化。为了实现这些目标，使用最大似然分类器（MCL）生成了五张具有不同类别分类的 LULC 地图。1996 年、2002 年、2008 年和 2017 年的分类图用于混合模型中，以模拟 2017 年和 2037 年的 LULC 图。模拟的 2017 年 LULC 图与分类的 2017 年 LULC 图进行了验证。变化分析表明，1988 年至 2017 年间，建成区和农业休耕地分别增加了 419%和 226%。在 2037 年的未来预测中，建成区和农业休耕地分别呈现出 5.5%和 26.5%的增长趋势。相比之下，农业用地、种植园用地和稀疏植被面积预计将分别减少 29.4%、65.8%和 36.9%。此外，2008 年与 1988 年相比，水体缩小了 43.36%，这表明 2008 年是一个严重的干旱年份。这些发现为保护生物学家、农业工程师、城市规划师和决策者提供了宝贵的基准信息，使他们能够更好地管理自然资源并监测环境变化。根据这些结果，可以建立可持续发展行动和预警系统。
