Wahdatyar Rahmatullah, Khokhar Muhammad Fahim, Ahmad Shakil, Rahil Mohammad Uzair, Stanikzai Mohammad Ajmal, Khan Junaid Aziz
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (SCEE), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Sector H-12, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan.
Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Nangarhar University, Afghanistan.
Heliyon. 2024 Oct 5;10(20):e39020. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39020. eCollection 2024 Oct 30.
Global land cover change has caused significant environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. It affects ecosystem functions, livelihoods, and climate variation and has drawn substantial attention in recent decades. In the Kabul River Basin (KRB), there are limited studies on the historical Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) pattern, transition, intensity and future perspective. Therefore, this study aims to investigate long-term LULC changes and major drivers of LULC in the KRB over the past thirty years (1990-2020) and then to project the future LULC pattern for the years 2030, 2040 and 2050. Landsat Imageries of (1990-2020) were used as input data by utilizing the Random Forest Classifier algorithm (RF) in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) to classify the LULC. The LULC was then projected for the future, using the Cellular Automata Markov Chain Model (CA-MCM). The results demonstrated drastic LULC changes, controlled primarily by urbanization and agriculture expansion, which expanded from 467 Km (0.7 %) to 2312 km (3.4 %) and 6528 km (9.6 %) to 10812 (15.9 %), between 1990 and 2020. In contrast, bare land decreased from 70606 km (82.1 %) to 48212 km (70.9 %) between 1990 and 2020. In addition, the study depicts that the expansion in built-up and vegetation areas in the KRB during the study period were at the utilization of bare land. Future LULC predictions indicated that between 2020 and 2050, bare land would trend downward from 48212 km (70.9 %) to 46172 km (67.9 %), while vegetation and built-up areas would trend upward from 2312 km (3.4 %) to 3640 km (5.3 %), 10812 km (15.9 %) to 11622 km (17.1 %), and water bodies and snowcover would slightly vary from 1.2 % to 0.9 % and 7.9 %-9.0 %. In addition, the results of LULC dynamics reveal a significant strong positive correlation between population and built, as well as population and vegetation. Conversely, there is a strong negative correlation between population and bare land. Our results provide precise insights on LULC patterns and trends in the KRB, which could be employed to design a sustainable framework for land use and ecosystem protection.
全球土地覆盖变化已导致严重的环境退化和生物多样性丧失。它影响生态系统功能、生计和气候变化，近几十年来受到了广泛关注。在喀布尔河流域（KRB），关于历史土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）模式、转变、强度及未来展望的研究有限。因此，本研究旨在调查喀布尔河流域过去三十年（1990 - 2020年）LULC的长期变化及主要驱动因素，然后预测2030年、2040年和2050年的未来LULC模式。利用谷歌地球引擎（GEE）中的随机森林分类器算法（RF），将1990 - 2020年的陆地卫星影像用作输入数据来对LULC进行分类。然后，使用细胞自动机马尔可夫链模型（CA - MCM）对未来的LULC进行预测。结果表明，LULC发生了剧烈变化，主要受城市化和农业扩张控制，1990年至2020年间，城市化区域从467平方公里（0.7%）扩展到2312平方公里（3.4%），农业区域从6528平方公里（9.6%）扩展到10812平方公里（15.9%）。相比之下，裸地在1990年至2020年间从70606平方公里（82.1%）减少到48212平方公里（70.9%）。此外，研究表明，研究期间喀布尔河流域建成区和植被区的扩张是以裸地的利用为代价的。未来LULC预测表明，2020年至2050年间，裸地将从48212平方公里（70.9%）下降到46172平方公里（67.9%），而植被区和建成区将上升，从2312平方公里（3.4%）增加到3640平方公里（5.3%），从10812平方公里（15.9%）增加到11622平方公里（17.1%），水体和积雪覆盖将略有变化——从1.2%变为0.9%，从7.9%变为9.0%。此外，LULC动态结果显示人口与建成区、人口与植被之间存在显著的强正相关。相反，人口与裸地之间存在强负相关。我们的研究结果为喀布尔河流域的LULC模式和趋势提供了精确见解，可用于设计土地利用和生态系统保护的可持续框架。
