Qadir Renas Y, Khwarahm Nabaz R
Department of Natural Resources, College of Agricultural Engineering Sciences, University of Sulaimani, Sulaimani 334, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.
Department of Biology, College of Education, University of Sulaimani, Sulaimani 334, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.
Biology (Basel). 2025 Mar 30;14(4):358. doi: 10.3390/biology14040358.
is an endemic species prevalent throughout the highlands of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Conservation, introduction, and restoration efforts require an in-depth understanding of the species' current and future habitat distributions under different climate change scenarios. This study utilized field observations, species distribution modeling, geospatial techniques, and environmental predictors to analyze the distribution and forecast potential habitats for in the highlands of Iraq. Findings indicate that, according to the global climate models (i.e., BCC-CSM2-MR and MRI-ESM2.0), the reduction in habitat for the species is projected to be more than the potential expansion. Specifically, the area of habitat is expected to reduce by 2351.908 km (4.6%) and 2216.957 km (4.3%), while it could increase by 1306.384 km (2.5%) and 1015.612 km (2.0%) for the respective climate models. Topographic features such as elevation and slope, climatic conditions, precipitation seasonality, and annual mean temperature relatively shape the distribution of . The modeling demonstrated good predictive capability (area under the curve (AUC) score = 0.933). The total study area is approximately 51,558.327 km, with around 20.5% (10,602 km) identified as suitable habitat for . These findings offer essential baseline information for conservation strategies and provide new insights into where the species currently resides and where it could be found in the future. This underscores how combining distribution modeling with geospatial techniques can be effective, particularly in data-deficient regions like Iraq.
是一种特有物种，在伊拉克库尔德地区的高地普遍存在。保护、引入和恢复工作需要深入了解该物种在不同气候变化情景下当前和未来的栖息地分布。本研究利用实地观察、物种分布建模、地理空间技术和环境预测因子，分析了伊拉克高地该物种的分布情况并预测其潜在栖息地。研究结果表明，根据全球气候模型（即BCC - CSM2 - MR和MRI - ESM2.0），预计该物种栖息地的减少量将超过潜在的扩张量。具体而言，对于各自的气候模型，栖息地面积预计将减少2351.908平方千米（4.6%）和2216.957平方千米（4.3%），而可能增加1306.384平方千米（2.5%）和1015.612平方千米（2.0%）。海拔和坡度等地形特征、气候条件、降水季节性和年平均温度相对影响该物种的分布。建模显示出良好的预测能力（曲线下面积（AUC）得分 = 0.933）。研究总面积约为51558.327平方千米，其中约20.5%（10602平方千米）被确定为该物种的适宜栖息地。这些发现为保护策略提供了重要的基线信息，并为该物种目前的栖息地位置以及未来可能被发现的地点提供了新的见解。这凸显了将分布建模与地理空间技术相结合的有效性，特别是在像伊拉克这样数据匮乏的地区。
