State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture, Qinghai University, Xining, China.
College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Qinghai University, Xining, China.
Pest Manag Sci. 2021 Jul;77(7):3165-3178. doi: 10.1002/ps.6354. Epub 2021 Mar 23.
Growth in insect pest populations poses a significant threat to ecosystem functions and services, societal development, and food security in alpine regions under climate change. Risk assessments are important prioritization tools for pest management, which must be used to study insect pest expansion in alpine ecosystems under global warming. We used species distribution modeling to simulate the current and future distribution probabilities of 58 insect pest species in the Qinghai Province, China, based on a comprehensive field investigation. Subsequently, general linear modeling was used to explore the relationship between the distribution probability of these species and the damage caused by them. Finally, we assessed the ecological risk of insect pest expansion across different alpine ecosystems under climate change.
Climate change could increase the distribution probabilities of insect pest species across different alpine ecosystems. However, the presence of insect pest species may not correspond to the damage occurrence in alpine ecosystems based on percent leaf loss, amount of stunting, and seedling death of their host species. Significant positive relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence were found for several of the examined insect pest species. Insect pest expansion is likely to increase extensively in alpine ecosystems under increasing carbon dioxide (CO ) emission scenarios.
The relationships between distribution probability and damage occurrence should be considered in species distribution modeling for risk assessment of insect pest expansion under climate change. Our study could improve the effectiveness of risk assessment of insect pest expansion under changing climate conditions. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.
在气候变化下，昆虫种群的增长对高山地区的生态系统功能和服务、社会发展和粮食安全构成了重大威胁。风险评估是害虫管理的重要优先工具，必须用于研究全球变暖下高山生态系统中昆虫害虫的扩张。我们使用物种分布模型，根据全面的实地调查，模拟了中国青海省 58 种昆虫害虫物种的当前和未来分布概率。随后，使用一般线性模型来探讨这些物种的分布概率与它们造成的损害之间的关系。最后，我们评估了气候变化下不同高山生态系统中昆虫害虫扩张的生态风险。
气候变化可能会增加不同高山生态系统中昆虫害虫物种的分布概率。然而，根据叶片损失百分比、矮化程度和宿主物种的幼苗死亡率，昆虫害虫物种的存在并不一定与高山生态系统中的损害发生相对应。在几种受检的昆虫害虫物种中，分布概率与损害发生之间存在显著的正相关关系。在不断增加的二氧化碳（CO）排放情景下，昆虫害虫的扩张很可能会在高山生态系统中广泛增加。
在气候变化下，对昆虫害虫扩张的风险评估进行物种分布模型时，应考虑分布概率和损害发生之间的关系。我们的研究可以提高在不断变化的气候条件下对昆虫害虫扩张风险评估的有效性。© 2021 化学工业协会。
