College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 28;19(19):12341. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191912341.
The current study examines the long-run effects of climatic factors on wheat production in China's top three wheat-producing provinces (Hebei, Henan, and Shandong). The data set consists of observations from 1992 to 2020 on which several techniques, namely, fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical co-integrating regression (CCR) estimators, and Granger causality, are applied. The results reveal that climatic factors, such as temperature and rainfall, negatively influenced wheat production in Henan Province. This means that Henan Province is more vulnerable to climate change. In contrast, it is observed that climatic conditions (via temperature and rainfall) positively contributed to wheat production in Hebei Province. Moreover, temperature negatively influenced wheat production in Shandong Province, while rainfall contributed positively to wheat production. Further, the results of Granger causality reveal that climatic factors and other determinants significantly influenced wheat production in the selected provinces.
本研究考察了气候因素对中国三大产麦省（河北、河南和山东）小麦产量的长期影响。该数据集包含了 1992 年至 2020 年的观测数据，应用了全矩估计法（FMOLS）、动态 OLS（DOLS）和典型协整回归（CCR）估计法以及格兰杰因果关系检验等几种技术。结果表明，气候因素（如温度和降雨量）对河南省的小麦产量产生了负面影响。这意味着河南省更容易受到气候变化的影响。相比之下，观察到气候条件（通过温度和降雨量）对河北省的小麦产量有积极贡献。此外，温度对山东省的小麦产量产生了负面影响，而降雨量则对小麦产量有积极贡献。进一步的格兰杰因果关系检验结果表明，气候因素和其他决定因素对所选省份的小麦产量有显著影响。
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