Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 2Y2, Canada.
Sci Adv. 2021 Mar 5;7(10). doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abf7133. Print 2021 Mar.
The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has resulted in a marked slowdown in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Although the resulting emission reductions will continue to evolve, this will presumably be temporary. Here, we provide estimates of the potential effect of such short-term emission reductions on global and regional temperature and precipitation by analyzing the response of an Earth System Model to a range of idealized near-term emission pathways not considered in available model intercomparison projects. These estimates reveal the modest impact that temporary emission reductions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global and regional climate. Our simulations suggest that the impact of carbon dioxide and aerosol emission reductions is actually a temporary enhancement in warming rate. However, our results demonstrate that even large emission reductions applied for a short duration have only a small and likely undetectable impact.
新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）大流行导致温室气体和气溶胶排放明显放缓。尽管由此产生的减排量仍在不断变化，但这种变化可能是暂时的。在这里，我们通过分析地球系统模型对一系列在现有模型比较项目中未考虑的理想化近期排放途径的响应，来估计这种短期减排对全球和区域温度和降水的潜在影响。这些估计表明，与新型冠状病毒肺炎相关的临时减排对全球和区域气候的影响有限。我们的模拟表明，与新型冠状病毒肺炎相关的二氧化碳和气溶胶减排的影响实际上是变暖率的暂时增强。然而，我们的结果表明，即使是短期大量减排，其影响也很小，而且可能无法检测到。
