Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Jul 25;16(15):2661. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16152661.
National committed greenhouse gas emission reduction actions are the center of the Paris Agreement, and are known as 'Intended Nationally Determined Contributions' (INDC) that aim to slow down global warming. The climate response to INDC emission reduction is a focus in climate change science. In this study, data from 32 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in Central Asia (CA) under the INDC scenario above the present-day level. The results show that the magnitude of warming in CA is remarkably higher than the global mean. Almost all the regions in CA will experience more intense, more frequent, and longer-lasting extreme high-temperature events. In comparison with the INDC scenario, the reduced warming of the 2.0 °C/1.5 °C target scenarios will help avoid approximately 44-61%/65-80% of the increase in extreme temperature events in terms of the intensity, frequency, and duration in CA. These results contribute to an improved understanding of the benefits of limiting global warming to the 2.0 °C/1.5 °C targets, which is paramount for mitigation and adaptation planning.
国家承诺的温室气体减排行动是《巴黎协定》的核心，被称为“国家自主决定的贡献”（INDC），旨在减缓全球变暖。对 INDC 减排的气候响应是气候变化科学的一个重点。在这项研究中，应用了来自耦合模式比较计划第 5 阶段（CMIP5）的 32 个全球气候模型的数据，以调查在高于当前水平的 INDC 情景下中亚（CA）的平均和极端高温的变化。结果表明，CA 的变暖幅度明显高于全球平均水平。CA 几乎所有地区都将经历更强烈、更频繁和持续时间更长的极端高温事件。与 INDC 情景相比，2.0°C/1.5°C 目标情景的减暖将有助于避免 CA 极端温度事件在强度、频率和持续时间方面增加约 44-61%/65-80%。这些结果有助于更好地理解将全球变暖限制在 2.0°C/1.5°C 目标的好处，这对于缓解和适应规划至关重要。
