Kruse Philip M, Schmitt Hanna C, Greiving Stefan
School of Spatial Planning, Institute of Spatial Planning (IRPUD), TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany.
Clim Change. 2021;165(1):2. doi: 10.1007/s10584-021-03019-x. Epub 2021 Mar 1.
With high certainty, extreme weather events will intensify in their impact within the next 10 years due to climate change-induced increases in hazard probability of occurrence and simultaneous increases in socio-economic vulnerability. Data from previous mega-disasters show that losses from disruptions of critical services surpass the value of direct damages in the exposed areas because critical infrastructures [CI] are increasingly (inter-) dependent. Local events may have global impacts. Systemic criticality, which describes the relevance of a critical infrastructure due to its positioning within the system, needs to be addressed to reduce the likelihood of cascading effects. This paper presents novel approaches to operationalise and assess systemic criticality. Firstly, the paper introduces systemic cascade potential as a measurement of systemic criticality. It takes the relevance of a sector and the relevance of its interdependencies into account to generate a relative value of systemic importance for a CI sector. Secondly, an exemplary sectoral assessment of the road network allows reflecting the spatial manifestation of the first level of cascading effects. It analyses the impact of traffic interruptions on the accessibility of critical facilities to point out the systemically most critical segments of the municipal road network. To further operationalise the spatial dimension of criticality, a normative assertion determining the worthiness of protection of system components is required. A nationwide spatial flood protection plan incorporates this aspect in Germany for the first time. Its formal approval process was initiated in February 2020.
可以高度确定的是，由于气候变化导致灾害发生概率增加以及社会经济脆弱性同时上升，极端天气事件在未来10年内的影响将加剧。以往重大灾害的数据表明，关键服务中断造成的损失超过了受灾地区直接损失的价值，因为关键基础设施[CI]之间的相互依存度越来越高。局部事件可能产生全球影响。为了降低连锁反应的可能性，需要解决系统关键性问题，即描述关键基础设施因其在系统中的位置而具有的相关性。本文提出了实现和评估系统关键性的新方法。首先，本文引入系统级联潜力作为系统关键性的衡量标准。它考虑了一个部门的相关性及其相互依存关系的相关性，以生成一个CI部门系统重要性的相对值。其次，对道路网络进行示范性的部门评估，可以反映出一级连锁反应的空间表现形式。它分析交通中断对关键设施可达性的影响，以指出城市道路网络中系统最关键的路段。为了进一步实现关键性的空间维度，需要一个确定系统组件保护价值的规范性主张。德国首次在全国范围内的空间洪水保护计划中纳入了这一方面。其正式批准程序于2020年2月启动。
