Cuéllar Leticia, Torres Irene, Romero-Severson Ethan, Mahesh Riya, Ortega Nathaniel, Pungitore Sarah, Hengartner Nicolas, Ke Ruian
A-1 Information Systems and Modeling, Analytics, Intelligence and Technology Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM87545, USA.
Fundación Octaedro, Quito, Ecuador.
medRxiv. 2021 Mar 1:2021.02.25.21252481. doi: 10.1101/2021.02.25.21252481.
In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe.
We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020 from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods.
Between January 1 and September 23 , 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador is 36,402 (95% CI: 35,762-36,827) or 208 per 10 population, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19, such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups.
Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality especially in older age groups and indigenous populations in Ecuador that was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.
2020年初，厄瓜多尔报告了全球人均死亡人数激增幅度最大的情况之一。
我们收集了一个综合数据集，其中包含2015年至2020年厄瓜多尔国家统计和普查研究所以及厄瓜多尔政府部的个人死亡记录。我们使用泊松回归方法计算了不同时间、地理位置和人口群体的超额死亡人数。
在2020年1月1日至9月23日期间，厄瓜多尔的超额死亡人数为36402人（95%置信区间：35762 - 36827），即每10万人中有208人死亡，这是正常年份该时期预期死亡人数的171%。仅20%的超额死亡可归因于确诊的COVID - 19死亡。令人惊讶的是，在受COVID - 19影响最严重的省份，如瓜亚斯省和圣埃伦娜省，全因死亡人数比正常年份预期死亡人数高出一倍多。男性的超额死亡程度高于女性，且超额死亡人数随年龄增长而增加。在所有种族群体中，原住民的超额死亡水平最高。
总体而言，厄瓜多尔极高的超额死亡水平凸显了COVID - 19对死亡率的巨大负担和异质影响，尤其是对厄瓜多尔的老年群体和原住民，而COVID - 19死亡计数并未完全揭示这一点。结合厄瓜多尔有限的检测情况，我们的结果表明，大多数超额死亡可能是未记录的COVID - 19死亡。
