Modeling dynamic correlation in zero-inflated bivariate count data with applications to single-cell RNA sequencing data.

Interactions between biological molecules in a cell are tightly coordinated and often highly dynamic. As a result of these varying signaling activities, changes in gene coexpression patterns could often be observed. The advancements in next-generation sequencing technologies bring new statistical challenges for studying these dynamic changes of gene coexpression. In recent years, methods have been developed to examine genomic information from individual cells. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data are count-based, and often exhibit characteristics such as overdispersion and zero inflation. To explore the dynamic dependence structure in scRNA-seq data and other zero-inflated count data, new approaches are needed. In this paper, we consider overdispersion and zero inflation in count outcomes and propose a ZEro-inflated negative binomial dynamic COrrelation model (ZENCO). The observed count data are modeled as a mixture of two components: success amplifications and dropout events in ZENCO. A latent variable is incorporated into ZENCO to model the covariate-dependent correlation structure. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the performance of our proposed method and to compare it with existing approaches. We also illustrate the implementation of our proposed approach using scRNA-seq data from a study of minimal residual disease in melanoma.