Department of Communication, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.
Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Mar 16;16(3):e0248049. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248049. eCollection 2021.
Research in a few U.S. states has shown that candidates listed first on ballots gain extra votes as a result. This study explored name order effects for the first time in New Hampshire, where such effects might be weak or entirely absent because of high political engagement and the use of party column ballots. In general elections (in 2012 and 2016) for federal offices and the governorship and in primaries (in 2000, 2002, and 2004), evidence of primacy effects appeared in 86% of the 84 tests, including the 2016 presidential race, when Donald Trump gained 1.7 percentage points from first listing, and Hillary Clinton gained 1.5 percentage points. Consistent with theoretical predictions, primacy effects were larger in primaries and for major-party candidates in general elections than for non-major-party candidates in general elections, more pronounced in less publicized contests, and stronger in contests without an incumbent running. All of this constitutes evidence of the reliability and generalizability of evidence on candidate name order effects and their moderators.
美国一些州的研究表明，候选人在选票上的排名越靠前，获得的额外选票就越多。本研究首次在新罕布什尔州探索了姓名顺序效应，由于高政治参与度和党派选票的使用，这种效应可能很弱或完全不存在。在 2012 年和 2016 年的联邦公职和州长选举以及 2000 年、2002 年和 2004 年的初选中，在 84 次测试中的 86%出现了首要效应的证据，包括 2016 年的总统竞选，唐纳德·特朗普因排名第一而获得了 1.7 个百分点，而希拉里·克林顿获得了 1.5 个百分点。与理论预测一致，在初选中，以及在大党候选人的大选中，首要效应大于在大党候选人的大选中，在知名度较低的比赛中更为明显，在没有现任者参选的比赛中更为强烈。所有这些都构成了候选人姓名顺序效应及其调节因素的可靠性和普遍性的证据。
