College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD 4811, Australia; Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, PMB3, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia; AIMS@JCU, Australian Institute of Marine Science, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.
Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, PMB3, Townsville, QLD 4810, Australia.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2021 May;166:112223. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112223. Epub 2021 Mar 14.
To predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and the effectiveness of intervention and mitigation strategies, we need reliable marine ecosystem response models such as biogeochemical models that reproduce climate change effects. We reviewed marine ecosystem parameters and processes that are modified by climate change and examined their representations in biogeochemical ecosystem models. The interactions among important aspects of marine ecosystem modelling are not often considered due to complexity: these include the use of multiple IPCC scenarios, ensemble modelling approach, independent calibration datasets, the consideration of changes in cloud cover, ocean currents, wind speed, sea-level rise, storm frequency, storm intensity, and the incorporation of species adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Including our recommendations in future marine modelling studies could help improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.
为了预测气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响以及干预和缓解策略的有效性，我们需要可靠的海洋生态系统响应模型，如能够再现气候变化影响的生物地球化学模型。我们回顾了受气候变化影响的海洋生态系统参数和过程，并研究了它们在生物地球化学生态系统模型中的表现。由于复杂性，海洋生态系统建模的重要方面之间的相互作用并不经常被考虑：这些方面包括使用多个 IPCC 情景、集合建模方法、独立的校准数据集、考虑云量变化、洋流、风速、海平面上升、风暴频率、风暴强度，以及将物种适应不断变化的环境条件纳入其中。在未来的海洋建模研究中包含我们的建议，有助于提高模型对气候变化对海洋生态系统影响的预测的准确性和可靠性。
