National Oceanography Centre, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
Ocean and Earth Sciences, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK.
Nat Commun. 2017 Mar 7;8:14682. doi: 10.1038/ncomms14682.
Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.
预计气候变化将改变海洋中的生态响应,有可能对人类提供的生态系统服务产生重要影响。在这里,我们探讨了未来海洋中多种海洋生态系统变化驱动因素将如何迅速发展的问题。通过分析一组合模型,我们发现,在未来 15 年内,气候变化驱动的多种生态系统驱动因素的趋势将从海洋自然变异性的背景中显现出来,并且在“照常营业”的情景下,到 2050 年,这些趋势将迅速传播到 86%的海洋。然而,我们也证明,通过气候缓解措施,可以大大减少海洋生态系统受到气候变化引起的压力的影响;通过缓解,未来 15 年内易受多种驱动因素影响的海洋比例将降低至 34%。缓解措施减缓了多种驱动因素出现的速度,为海洋生态和社会经济系统的适应提供了额外 20 年的时间。