Department of Psychology, Carleton University.
Law Hum Behav. 2021 Feb;45(1):24-38. doi: 10.1037/lhb0000436.
The purpose of this study was to develop new 10-year recidivism rate norms as well as to update 5-year norms for the Static-99R risk tool for routine/complete samples. We also present the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates from these new 10-year norms for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. We hypothesized that absolute-recidivism base rates (B02; i.e., the intercept centered on the median score of 2) would vary; however, the relative predictive accuracy (i.e., discrimination; B1) would be stable across samples. In addition, compared with the estimated sexual recidivism rates with a fixed 5-year follow-up time, the estimated rates with a fixed 10-year follow-up time would be expected to be consistently higher across the Static-99R scores. The current study included 12 independent samples ( = 7,224 for the 5-year recidivism rate norms; = 1,599 [k = 6] for the 10-year norms) classified as routine/complete samples, that is, relatively random samples from a correctional system. Logistic regression parameters (B02 and B1) across the studies were aggregated using fixed-effect meta-analyses. There was statistically significant variability in the base rates (B02), whereas the between-sample variability in the relative-risk parameters (B1) was no more than would be expected by chance. As expected, the 10-year base rates were approximately 1.5 times higher than the 5-year base rates (7.20% vs. 4.58%), and the extrapolated 20-year sexual recidivism rates were approximately double the observed 5-year sexual recidivism rates. The current study provides empirical evidence to estimate 5- and 10-year sexual recidivism rates based on Static-99R total scores. Evaluators who are especially concerned about long-term sexual recidivism risk (e.g., civil commitment) can report the expected sexual recidivism risk based on the new 10-year norms and the extrapolated sexual recidivism rates for follow-up periods of 11 to 20 years. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).
本研究旨在为静态-99R 风险工具开发新的 10 年累犯率标准，并更新其 5 年累犯率标准，适用于常规/完整样本。我们还为新的 10 年累犯率标准提供了 11 至 20 年随访期间的外推性性累犯率。我们假设绝对累犯基准率（B02；即，以中位数分数 2 为中心的截距）会有所变化；然而，相对预测准确性（即，区分度；B1）在样本间保持稳定。此外，与固定 5 年随访时间的估计性性累犯率相比，预计在静态-99R 评分范围内，固定 10 年随访时间的估计率将持续较高。本研究包括 12 个独立样本（5 年累犯率标准为 7224 人；10 年累犯率标准为 1599 人[K=6]），分类为常规/完整样本，即来自矫正系统的相对随机样本。使用固定效应荟萃分析对跨研究的逻辑回归参数（B02 和 B1）进行了汇总。基准率（B02）存在统计学上的显著差异，而相对风险参数（B1）在样本间的差异不超过随机变化。正如预期的那样，10 年的基准率大约是 5 年基准率的 1.5 倍（7.20%比 4.58%），外推的 20 年性累犯率大约是观察到的 5 年性累犯率的两倍。本研究提供了基于静态-99R 总分估计 5 年和 10 年性累犯率的实证证据。特别关注长期性累犯风险（例如，民事承诺）的评估者可以根据新的 10 年累犯率标准和 11 至 20 年随访期间的外推性性累犯率报告预期的性累犯风险。（PsycInfo 数据库记录（c）2021 APA，保留所有权利）。
