Office of Corrections, Canton of Zurich, Switzerland.
Department of Psychology, University of Konstanz, Germany.
Sex Abuse. 2020 Mar;32(2):203-219. doi: 10.1177/1079063218821117. Epub 2019 Jan 9.
This study evaluated the validity of the Static-99 and Static-99R in assessing sexual recidivism in Switzerland, based on a sample of 142 male sex offenders. Both tools showed predictive validity, but the Static-99R had better discrimination (OR = 1.82, AUC = .81) and calibration (Brier = .078, P/E = 0.96) than the Static-99. A cut score of four on the Static-99R maximized sensitivity (92.9%) and specificity (60.2%). However, although most offenders (98.7%) with a score < 4 did not commit sexual offenses in the 5-year follow-up period, only one in five (20.3%) offenders with a score ≥ 4 actually recidivated. Furthermore, the predicted number of recidivists in the well above average risk category (Static-99R ≥ 6) was 24% higher than expected in routine samples. The results suggest that the Static-99R may be a useful screening tool to identify low-risk individuals but offenders with scores ≥ 4 should be subjected to a more thorough assessment.
本研究基于 142 名男性性犯罪者的样本，评估了 Static-99 和 Static-99R 在评估瑞士性犯罪再犯的有效性。这两种工具都显示出预测有效性，但 Static-99R 的区分度（OR=1.82，AUC=0.81）和校准度（Brier=0.078，P/E=0.96）均优于 Static-99。Static-99R 的得分为 4 时，灵敏度（92.9%）和特异性（60.2%）最高。然而，尽管大多数得分<4 的罪犯（98.7%）在 5 年随访期间未犯下性犯罪，但只有五分之一（20.3%）得分≥4 的罪犯实际上再次犯罪。此外，在常规样本中，预测的处于极高风险类别（Static-99R≥6）的再犯罪人数比预期高出 24%。研究结果表明，Static-99R 可能是一种有用的筛查工具，可以识别低风险个体，但得分≥4 的罪犯应接受更彻底的评估。
