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集体草率下结论:社会信息加剧了收集不充分数据的倾向。

Collectively jumping to conclusions: Social information amplifies the tendency to gather insufficient data.

作者信息

Sulik Justin, Efferson Charles, McKay Ryan

机构信息

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.

Faculty of Business and Economics.

出版信息

J Exp Psychol Gen. 2021 Nov;150(11):2309-2320. doi: 10.1037/xge0001044. Epub 2021 Mar 18.

DOI:10.1037/xge0001044
PMID:33734777
Abstract

False beliefs can spread within societies even when they are costly and when individuals share access to the same objective reality. Research on the cultural evolution of misbeliefs has demonstrated that a social context can explain what people think but not whether it also explains how people think. We shift the focus from the diffusion of false beliefs to the diffusion of suboptimal belief-formation strategies and identify a novel mechanism whereby misbeliefs arise and spread. We show that, when individual decision makers have access to the data-gathering behavior of others, the tendency to make decisions on the basis of insufficient evidence is amplified, increasing the rate of incorrect, costly decisions. We argue that this mechanism fills a gap in current explanations of problematic, widespread misbeliefs such as climate change denial. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

摘要

即使错误信念代价高昂,且个体共享相同的客观现实,它们仍会在社会中传播。关于错误信念文化演变的研究表明,社会环境可以解释人们的想法,但无法解释人们思考的方式。我们将关注点从错误信念的传播转移到次优信念形成策略的传播,并确定了一种错误信念产生和传播的新机制。我们发现,当个体决策者能够了解他人的数据收集行为时,基于不充分证据做出决策的倾向就会被放大,从而增加了做出错误且代价高昂决策的概率。我们认为,这种机制填补了当前对诸如否认气候变化等有问题的广泛错误信念解释中的空白。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c)2022美国心理学会,保留所有权利)

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