Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo, Japan; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico.
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 May 15;769:145236. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145236. Epub 2021 Jan 19.
Climate change is having a catastrophic impact on the livelihoods of farm households in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA). This study employs comprehensive data obtained in 2018 from 4351 farm households in five countries to appraise the key climate hazards experienced by farmers, the risk coping methods adopted, and factor influencing the use of these methods. Although droughts, floods, hailstorms, and crop pests/diseases are major climate-induced risks in ESA, droughts are predominant in all these countries. Farm households in ESA have adopted various strategies to address climate risk, which includes changing farming practices, reducing consumption, using savings and borrowing, and seeking new employment. Farming families headed by a female, married, or an elderly member opt to change farming methods and decrease consumption, whereas they are less inclined to look for alternate livelihood options. Farming families with higher livestock endowments commonly use savings or borrow and are unlikely to change farming methods, decrease consumption, and search for alternate employment. Better-off families tend to change farming methods but are unlikely to adopt other risk coping options. Farming families with non-farm livelihood options are unlikely to change farming methods, use savings/borrowings, or decrease consumption, whereas they tend to search for alternate employment. Training on agriculture and economic status are crucial for climate change adaptation in these regions. Findings exhibit substantial differences among the study countries regarding the adoption of coping strategies. Compared to farmers in Kenya, farmers in other countries change agricultural methods to cope with climate shocks. Ethiopian farmers, compared to their Kenyan counterparts, decrease consumption to deal with climate risks, whereas, farmers in Tanzania, Malawi, and Mozambique are less likely to use this option. Similarly, the likelihood of seeking alternative employment as a risk coping strategy is lower among Ethiopian farmers, while it is higher among the farmers in other countries.
气候变化正在对东非和南非（ESA）的农户生计造成灾难性影响。本研究利用 2018 年从五个国家的 4351 户农户获得的综合数据，评估了农民所经历的主要气候危害、采用的风险应对方法以及影响这些方法使用的因素。尽管干旱、洪水、雹暴和作物病虫害是 ESA 主要的气候诱发风险，但所有这些国家都以干旱为主。ESA 的农户采用了各种策略来应对气候风险，包括改变耕作方式、减少消费、利用储蓄和借款以及寻求新的就业机会。由女性、已婚或老年成员领导的农业家庭倾向于改变耕作方法和减少消费，而不太倾向于寻找其他生计选择。拥有较多牲畜的农业家庭通常使用储蓄或借款，不太可能改变耕作方法、减少消费和寻找其他就业机会。较富裕的家庭倾向于改变耕作方法，但不太可能采用其他风险应对选择。拥有非农业生计选择的农业家庭不太可能改变耕作方法、使用储蓄/借款或减少消费，而倾向于寻找其他就业机会。在这些地区，关于农业和经济地位的培训对于适应气候变化至关重要。研究结果显示，在采用应对策略方面，研究国家之间存在很大差异。与肯尼亚的农民相比，其他国家的农民会改变农业方法来应对气候冲击。与肯尼亚的农民相比，埃塞俄比亚的农民会减少消费来应对气候风险，而坦桑尼亚、马拉维和莫桑比克的农民则不太可能选择这种方式。同样，寻求替代就业作为应对风险的策略的可能性在埃塞俄比亚农民中较低，而在其他国家的农民中则较高。
