School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511;
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Apr 6;118(14). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2011969118.
This paper estimates the financial benefits accruing to fossil fuel producers (i.e., the producer incidence) that arise because of implicit fossil fuel subsidies in the United States. The analysis takes account of coal, natural gas, gasoline, and diesel, along with the implicit subsidies due to externalized environmental damages, public health effects, and transportation-related costs. The direct benefit to fossil fuel producers across all four fuels is estimated at $62 billion per year, a sum calculated due to the higher price that suppliers receive because of inefficient pricing compared to the counterfactual scenario where environmental and public health externalities are internalized. A significant portion of these benefits accrue to relatively few companies, and specific estimates are provided for companies with the largest production. The financial benefit because of unpriced costs borne by society is comparable to 18% of net income from continuing domestic operations for the median natural gas and oil producer in 2017-2018, and it exceeds net income for the majority of coal producers. The results clarify what the domestic fossil fuel industry has at stake financially when it comes to policies that seek to address climate change, adverse health effects from local pollution, and inefficient transportation.
本文估计了美国隐含化石燃料补贴给化石燃料生产商（即生产者负担）带来的经济利益。该分析考虑了煤炭、天然气、汽油和柴油，以及由于外部化的环境损害、公共卫生影响和与交通相关的成本而产生的隐含补贴。由于与将环境和公共健康外部性内部化的情况相比，供应商因定价效率低下而获得的更高价格，所有四种燃料的化石燃料生产商的直接收益估计为每年 620 亿美元。这些收益的很大一部分归属于相对较少的公司，并且为产量最大的公司提供了具体估计。由于社会承担的无定价成本而产生的财务收益与 2017-2018 年天然气和石油生产商中位数国内持续经营净利润的 18%相当，超过了大多数煤炭生产商的净利润。研究结果阐明了国内化石燃料行业在应对气候变化、当地污染对健康的不利影响以及低效交通等政策方面在财务上的利害关系。
