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健康状态偏好的贝叶斯建模:从现有国家的评估中借鉴优势能否产生更好的估计。

Bayesian modeling of health state preferences: could borrowing strength from existing countries' valuations produce better estimates.

机构信息

Department of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, American University of Beirut, P.O.BOX: 11-0236, Riad El Solh 1107-2020, Beirut, Lebanon.

出版信息

Eur J Health Econ. 2021 Jul;22(5):773-788. doi: 10.1007/s10198-021-01289-x. Epub 2021 Mar 24.

DOI:10.1007/s10198-021-01289-x
PMID:33761028
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Valuations of preference-based measure such as EQ-5D and/or SF6D have been conducted in different countries. There is potential to borrow strength from existing countries' valuations to generate better representative utility estimates. This is explored using two case studies modelling UK data alongside Japan samples to generate Japan estimates.

METHODS

Data from two SF-6D valuation studies were analyzed, where using similar standard gamble protocols, values for 241 and 249 states were devised from representative samples of Japan and UK general adult populations, respectively. Two nonparametric Bayesian models were applied to estimate a Japan value set, where the UK results were used as informative priors in the first model and subsets of the Japan data set for 25 and 50 health states were modelled alongside the full UK data set in the second. Generated estimates were compared to a Japan value set estimated using Japan values alone using different prediction criterion.

RESULTS

The results allowed the UK data to provide significant prior information to the Japan analysis by generating better estimates than using Japan data alone. Also, using Japan data elicited for 50 health states alongside the existing UK data produces roughly similar predicted valuations as the Japan data by itself.

CONCLUSION

The promising results suggest that the existing preference data could be combined with data from a valuation study in a new country to generate preference weights, thus making own country value sets more achievable for low-middle income countries. Further research and application to other countries and preference-based measures are encouraged.

摘要

背景

已经在不同国家进行了基于偏好的衡量标准(如 EQ-5D 和/或 SF6D)的评估。有可能借鉴现有国家的评估结果,生成更具代表性的效用估计值。本研究通过两项案例研究来探索这一点,即使用英国数据和日本样本建模,生成日本的估计值。

方法

分析了两项 SF-6D 评估研究的数据,在这两项研究中,使用类似的标准博弈协议,分别从日本和英国普通成年人群体的代表性样本中设计出 241 个和 249 个状态的价值。应用了两种非参数贝叶斯模型来估计日本的价值集,其中英国的结果在第一个模型中被用作信息先验,而第二个模型则在英国数据集的基础上,同时对日本数据集中的 25 个和 50 个健康状态子集进行建模。生成的估计值与仅使用日本数据估计的日本价值集进行了比较,使用了不同的预测标准。

结果

结果表明,通过生成比仅使用日本数据更好的估计值,英国数据为日本分析提供了重要的先验信息。此外,使用与现有英国数据一起收集的日本 50 个健康状态的数据,可以产生与日本数据本身大致相似的预测值。

结论

有前途的结果表明,可以将现有偏好数据与新国家的评估研究数据相结合,生成偏好权重,从而使中低收入国家更容易获得自己国家的价值集。鼓励进一步研究和在其他国家和基于偏好的衡量标准中的应用。

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引用本文的文献

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2
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本文引用的文献

1
A general health policy model: update and applications.一种通用健康政策模型:更新与应用
Health Serv Res. 1988 Jun;23(2):203-35.