Department of Ecological Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK.
Commun Biol. 2021 Mar 25;4(1):403. doi: 10.1038/s42003-021-01951-3.
The Antarctic Peninsula is under pressure from non-native plants and this risk is expected to increase under climate warming. Establishment and subsequent range expansion of non-native plants depend in part on germination ability under Antarctic conditions, but quantifying these processes has yet to receive detailed study. Viability testing and plant growth responses under simulated Antarctic soil surface conditions over an annual cycle show that 16 non-native species, including grasses, herbs, rushes and a succulent, germinated and continued development under a warming scenario. Thermal germination requirement (degree day sum) was calculated for each species and field soil-temperature recordings indicate that this is satisfied as far south as 72° S. Here, we show that the establishment potential of non-native species, in number and geographical range, is considerably greater than currently suggested by species distribution modelling approaches, with important implications for risk assessments of non-native species along the Antarctic Peninsula.
南极半岛正面临着非本地植物的压力，而这种风险预计将在气候变暖的情况下增加。非本地植物的建立和随后的分布范围的扩大部分取决于在南极条件下的发芽能力，但量化这些过程尚未得到详细研究。在模拟的南极土壤表面条件下，经过一年的生存能力测试和植物生长反应显示，包括草、草本植物、灯心草和肉质植物在内的 16 种非本地物种在变暖情景下发芽并继续发育。为每种物种计算了热发芽要求（度日和），而野外土壤温度记录表明，在南纬 72°的地方就可以满足这个要求。在这里，我们表明，非本地物种的建立潜力，无论是在数量上还是在地理分布范围上，都远远超过了目前物种分布模型方法所表明的，这对评估南极半岛非本地物种的风险具有重要意义。
