Global Warming Could Magnify Insect-Driven Apparent Competition Between Native and Introduced Host Plants in Sub-Antarctic Islands.

Pristine sub-Antarctic islands terrestrial ecosystems, including many endemic species, are highly threatened by human-induced cosmopolitan plant invasion. We propose that native plant suppression could be further facilitated by the subsequent invasion by generalist pest species that could exacerbate their competitive exclusion through the process of apparent competition. By comparing the biological parameters of an invasive aphid species, Myzus ascalonicus, on one native (Acaena magellanica) and one invasive (Senecio vulgaris) plant species, we showed that survival and fecundity were higher and development time lower on the native plant species than on the invasive one. Moreover, comparing the effect of a temperature increase on the population dynamics of M. ascalonicus on the two plants, we showed that the relative profitability of the native species is further amplified by warming. Hence, while pest population doubling time is 28% higher on the invasive plant under current temperature, it would become 40% higher with an increase in temperature of 3°C. Consequently, our findings demonstrate that global warming could exacerbate competitive exclusion of native plants by invasive plants in sub-Antarctic islands by its indirect effect on the apparent competition mediated by generalist phytophagous pests.