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Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Central Lymph Node Metastasis in T1-T2, Non-invasive, and Clinically Node Negative Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

作者信息

Zhu Jiang, Zheng Jinxin, Li Longfei, Huang Rui, Ren Haoyu, Wang Denghui, Dai Zhijun, Su Xinliang

机构信息

Department of Endocrine and Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.

Department of Breast Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.

出版信息

Front Med (Lausanne). 2021 Mar 9;8:635771. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2021.635771. eCollection 2021.


DOI:10.3389/fmed.2021.635771
PMID:33768105
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7986413/
Abstract

While there are no clear indications of whether central lymph node dissection is necessary in patients with T1-T2, non-invasive, clinically uninvolved central neck lymph nodes papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), this study seeks to develop and validate models for predicting the risk of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in these patients based on machine learning algorithms. This is a retrospective study comprising 1,271 patients with T1-T2 stage, non-invasive, and clinically node negative (cN0) PTC who underwent surgery at the Department of Endocrine and Breast Surgery of The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University from February 1, 2016, to December 31, 2018. We applied six machine learning (ML) algorithms, including Logistic Regression (LR), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), and Neural Network (NNET), coupled with preoperative clinical characteristics and intraoperative information to develop prediction models for CLNM. Among all the samples, 70% were randomly selected to train the models while the remaining 30% were used for validation. Indices like the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were calculated to test the models' performance. The results showed that ~51.3% (652 out of 1,271) of the patients had pN1 disease. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, gender, tumor size and location, multifocality, age, and Delphian lymph node status were all independent predictors of CLNM. In predicting CLNM, six ML algorithms posted AUROC of 0.70-0.75, with the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model standing out, registering 0.75. Thus, we employed the best-performing ML algorithm model and uploaded the results to a self-made online risk calculator to estimate an individual's probability of CLNM (https://jin63.shinyapps.io/ML_CLNM/). With the incorporation of preoperative and intraoperative risk factors, ML algorithms can achieve acceptable prediction of CLNM with Xgboost model performing the best. Our online risk calculator based on ML algorithm may help determine the optimal extent of initial surgical treatment for patients with T1-T2 stage, non-invasive, and clinically node negative PTC.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6450/7986413/f512b3d19a29/fmed-08-635771-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6450/7986413/373f677e9ff6/fmed-08-635771-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6450/7986413/9ed7a8d3878f/fmed-08-635771-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6450/7986413/f512b3d19a29/fmed-08-635771-g0003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6450/7986413/373f677e9ff6/fmed-08-635771-g0001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6450/7986413/9ed7a8d3878f/fmed-08-635771-g0002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6450/7986413/f512b3d19a29/fmed-08-635771-g0003.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Central Lymph Node Metastasis in T1-T2, Non-invasive, and Clinically Node Negative Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

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[2]
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[3]
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[4]
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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[2]
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Int J Comput Assist Radiol Surg. 2025-6-16

[3]
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[4]
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[5]
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Cancers (Basel). 2025-4-12

[6]
Application of a Novel Multimodal-Based Deep Learning Model for the Prediction of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Recurrence.

Int J Gen Med. 2024-12-31

[7]
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Front Immunol. 2024

[8]
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Digit Health. 2024-10-7

[9]
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Radiat Oncol. 2024-5-27

[10]
Interpretable machine learning-based clinical prediction model for predicting lymph node metastasis in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

BMC Gastroenterol. 2024-4-19

本文引用的文献

[1]
Clinical implications of Delphian lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Gland Surg. 2021-1

[2]
Machine Learning Algorithms for the Prediction of Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients With Papillary Thyroid Cancer.

Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2020

[3]
Association Between Age and Nodal Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2021-7

[4]
A nomogram model based on the preoperative clinical characteristics of papillary thyroid carcinoma with Hashimoto's thyroiditis to predict central lymph node metastasis.

Clin Endocrinol (Oxf). 2021-2

[5]
Ultrasonography for the Prediction of High-Volume Lymph Node Metastases in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: Should Surgeons Believe Ultrasound Results?

World J Surg. 2020-12

[6]
Analysis of Risk Factors for Lymph Node Metastases in Elderly Patients with Papillary Thyroid Micro-Carcinoma.

Cancer Manag Res. 2020-8-11

[7]
Nomogram for Predicting Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Cohort Study of Two Clinical Centers.

Cancer Res Treat. 2020-10

[8]
Global Burden of Thyroid Cancer From 1990 to 2017.

JAMA Netw Open. 2020-6-1

[9]
Prophylactic Central Lymph Node Dissection Improves Disease-Free Survival in Patients with Intermediate and High Risk Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma: A Retrospective Analysis on 399 Patients.

Cancers (Basel). 2020-6-23

[10]
Risk model and risk stratification to preoperatively predict central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Gland Surg. 2020-4

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