College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, No. 1, Shizishan Street, Hongshan District, Wuhan, 430070, People's Republic of China.
The State Key Laboratory of Agricultural Microbiology, Huazhong Agricultural University, No. 1, Shizishan Street, Hongshan District, Wuhan, 430070, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Aug;28(29):39787-39804. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13313-x. Epub 2021 Mar 25.
Sugarcane is one of the most important crops in the world and has a major influence on environmental concerns. This study aims to examine the association between sugarcane crop yield, climate change factors, and technical advancement using time series data for the period of 1989 to 2015 in Pakistan. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and descriptive statistics analysis were employed in this study. The outcomes of the bound F-test for co-integration confirmed that there is a long-run and short-run equilibrium among sugarcane crop yield, temperature, rainfall, fertilizer use, and agricultural machinery. The results of long-run estimate that the coefficient of area, rainfall, and fertilizer use have significantly positive impacts on sugarcane crop yield. The coefficient of temperature had positive and non-significant while agricultural machinery had negative and statistically significant relationship with sugarcane crop yield. In the short-run estimates, the coefficient of area, rainfall, and fertilizer use have statistically positive impact, temperature had non-significant impact, and agricultural machinery had significantly negative impact on the yield of sugarcane crop. In addition, both CUSUM and CUSUMsq test results confirmed the goodness of fit of this model. The outcomes of our study suggest that climate change has negative impact on the yield of sugarcane. Based on the study findings, the Government requires to take effective measures for constructive policy-making and identification of environmental threats in Pakistan. Large-scale mechanical activities and rapid growing may be useful initiatives for raising the yield of sugarcane. Furthermore, technical advancement needs to be improved because it plays a vital role in increasing the yield of sugarcane and other major crops.
甘蔗是世界上最重要的作物之一，对环境问题有重大影响。本研究旨在利用 1989 年至 2015 年期间巴基斯坦的时间序列数据，研究甘蔗作物产量、气候变化因素和技术进步之间的关系。本研究采用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 模型和描述性统计分析。协整的边界 F 检验结果证实，甘蔗作物产量、温度、降雨量、肥料使用和农业机械之间存在长期和短期均衡。长期估计结果表明，面积、降雨量和肥料使用系数对甘蔗作物产量有显著的正向影响。温度系数具有正但不显著的关系，而农业机械与甘蔗作物产量呈负相关且具有统计学意义。在短期估计中，面积、降雨量和肥料使用系数具有统计学上的正向影响，温度系数没有显著影响，而农业机械对甘蔗作物产量有显著的负向影响。此外，CUSUM 和 CUSUMsq 检验结果均证实了该模型的拟合优度。本研究的结果表明，气候变化对甘蔗产量有负面影响。基于研究结果，政府需要采取有效措施，为巴基斯坦制定建设性政策和识别环境威胁。大规模的机械化活动和快速增长可能是提高甘蔗产量的有用举措。此外，需要提高技术进步，因为它在提高甘蔗和其他主要作物的产量方面发挥着重要作用。
