College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China.
Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cag University, 33800, Mersin, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Apr;27(11):11944-11957. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-07739-y. Epub 2020 Jan 25.
This research has examined the dynamic linkages among climate change factors, such as CO emissions, temperature, rainfall, and cereal yield in Turkey from 1968 to 2014. At first step, we tested stationary properties of the climatic factors and crop yield by using both traditional and breakpoint unit root tests. After the confirmation of given properties, we used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to capture the dynamic relationship among the variables in the given span of time. The empirical results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship that exists between climate change factors and cereal yield. CO emissions and average temperature have a diverse effect on the cereal yield, whereas average rainfall has a positive effect on the cereal yield in both the long run and short run. To check the causality, we use the Granger causality test that reveals a significant effect of climate change variables on the cereal yield. The unidirectional causal link is significant among temperature and rainfall factors. The results show that the cereal yield is affected by more climate factors like rain fall and temperature due to CO emissions as compared to land and labor use. Based on the findings of the study, few suggestions have been made to address the climate change factors. Devise agriculture-specific adaptation policy for the farmers to build their capacity and resilience to tackle climate changes, for example, farm practices. Agriculture research and development should work on cereal crop varieties that can tolerate the high temperature and precipitation. These policies could help the agriculture sector to sustain production and allocation efficiency in the long run.
本研究考察了 1968 年至 2014 年期间土耳其气候变化因素（如 CO2 排放、温度、降雨和谷物产量）之间的动态联系。首先，我们使用传统和断点单位根检验检验了气候因素和作物产量的平稳性。在确认了给定的属性后，我们使用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型来捕捉变量在给定时间段内的动态关系。实证结果表明，气候变化因素与谷物产量之间存在长期均衡关系。CO2 排放和平均温度对谷物产量有不同的影响，而平均降雨量在长期和短期对谷物产量都有积极的影响。为了检查因果关系，我们使用格兰杰因果检验，该检验揭示了气候变化变量对谷物产量的显著影响。在温度和降雨因素之间存在单向因果关系。研究结果表明，与土地和劳动力使用相比，由于 CO2 排放，更多的气候因素（如降雨和温度）会影响谷物产量。根据研究结果，提出了一些建议来应对气候变化因素。为农民制定专门的农业适应政策，以增强他们的能力和适应气候变化的能力，例如农场实践。农业研究和开发应致力于开发能够耐受高温和降水的谷物品种。这些政策可以帮助农业部门在长期内保持生产和配置效率。
