Institute of Business Management, Karachi, Pakistan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2020 Aug;27(23):29580-29588. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-09222-0. Epub 2020 May 22.
This study investigates the relationship between climate change, the area under cultivation, fertilizer consumption, and cotton production in Pakistan from 1980 to 2018. The existence and nature of the short-term and long-term relationships are explored by using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model bounds testing approach. The estimated result of the ARDL bounds testing approach has shown the presence of cointegration between dependent and explanatory variables. The long-term estimates have revealed that the increasing average temperature has a positive insignificant effect, which implies that rising temperature is not increasing cotton yield in Pakistan. The findings of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption have revealed significant positive effects in both the long run and short run. This study urges Pakistan to reduce the pace of climate changes and increase water conservation by planting forests and constructing dams across major rivers along with the adoption of environmentally friendly production techniques and inputs.
本研究调查了 1980 年至 2018 年间气候变化、耕地面积、化肥消耗与巴基斯坦棉花产量之间的关系。采用自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 模型边界检验方法来探索短期和长期关系的存在和性质。ARDL 边界检验方法的估计结果表明，因变量和自变量之间存在协整关系。长期估计表明，平均气温的升高具有正的不显著影响，这意味着气温升高并没有增加巴基斯坦的棉花产量。耕地面积和化肥消耗的研究结果表明，在长期和短期都具有显著的正效应。本研究敦促巴基斯坦减缓气候变化的步伐，通过在主要河流上种植森林和修建水坝来节约用水，同时采用环保型生产技术和投入。
