College of Management, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China.
College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu, 611130, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Apr;29(18):26660-26674. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-17579-z. Epub 2021 Dec 2.
This research attempts to evaluate the linkage among climatic change factors such as average temperature and rainfall patterns and non-climatic factors such as the area under major yield crops, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit on major food crop yield from 1985 to 2016 in Pakistan. For the first step, we checked the stationarity of the series by utilizing the unit root tests. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed to identify the linkages between variables after verifying the properties over a specific period of time. The consequences of this study confirmed the long-run association between climatic and non-climatic factors to the major food crop yield in Pakistan. Furthermore, the outcomes of the study revealed that temperature has a diverse impact on major food crop yields. Whereas, the area under major food crops, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit have a positive impact on major food crop yield in Pakistan. For the second step, we used the Granger causality test to verify the causal linkage for the variables. The outcomes reveal a significant effect of climatic and non-climatic factors on major food crop yield. The bidirectional causality causal associations are found to be significant among variables including average temperature, fertilizer consumption, and formal credit disbursement. The empirical results further indicated that major food crop yields are more affected by climatic factors such as average temperature as compared to non-climatic factors. Based on the study findings, few recommendations are made to cope with factors of climate change. Invent such agricultural-specific adaptation policies for farmers which possess the ability and resilience to tackle climate change. Research and development in agriculture should focus on major varieties of food crops that can endure high temperatures. The agriculture industry will be able to sustain long-term production and distribution efficiency attributable to these strategies.
本研究试图评估 1985 年至 2016 年间，气候变化因素（如平均温度和降雨模式）与非气候因素（如主要作物面积、肥料使用量和主要粮食作物的正规信贷）之间的联系。在第一步中，我们利用单位根检验检查了序列的平稳性。在验证了特定时间段内的特性之后，我们采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型来确定变量之间的联系。这项研究的结果证实了气候和非气候因素与巴基斯坦主要粮食作物产量之间存在长期关联。此外，研究结果表明，温度对主要粮食作物产量有不同的影响。而主要粮食作物面积、平均降雨量、肥料使用量和正规信贷对巴基斯坦主要粮食作物产量有积极影响。在第二步中，我们使用格兰杰因果检验来验证变量之间的因果关系。结果表明，气候和非气候因素对主要粮食作物产量有显著影响。发现变量之间存在显著的双向因果关系，包括平均温度、肥料使用量和正规信贷发放。实证结果进一步表明，与非气候因素相比，主要粮食作物产量受平均温度等气候因素的影响更大。根据研究结果，提出了一些应对气候变化因素的建议。为农民制定具有适应气候变化能力和弹性的农业特定适应政策。农业研究与发展应侧重于能够耐受高温的主要粮食作物品种。这些策略将使农业部门能够维持长期的生产和分配效率。
