Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, The King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FD, UK.
The James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, Scotland, UK.
J Theor Biol. 2021 Aug 7;522:110701. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110701. Epub 2021 Mar 30.
Potato cyst nematodes (PCN) are responsible for large losses in potato yields in many of the world's potato-growing regions. As soil temperatures increase due to climate change, there is potential for faster growth rates of PCN, allowing development of multiple generations in a growing season. We develop a process-based temperature-dependent model representing the life cycle of Globodera pallida, comprising juvenile, adult and cyst/diapause stages. To incorporate variability in the amount of time spent in each stage caused by genetic/environmental variation, the model is based on a mix of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with sub-stages, and delay differential equations (DDEs). The effect of climate change is incorporated through the influence of soil temperature on the rate of development and survival in the hatching and juvenile stages. The level of the plant resistance to PCN is incorporated via the proportion of juveniles which become adults. After comparing the model with field data we run simulations to explore the effects of temperature and resistance on PCN populations. We find that with higher temperatures and longer growing seasons multiple generations of PCN can develop within a season, provided any required diapause period is short. Despite this, we show that growing resistant potatoes is a very effective control strategy and planting potatoes with even moderate levels of resistance can counter the effects of climate change.
马铃薯胞囊线虫（PCN）是世界上许多马铃薯种植区马铃薯产量大幅下降的罪魁祸首。随着气候变化导致土壤温度升高，PCN 的生长速度可能会加快，使得一个生长季节内可以产生多代。我们开发了一种基于过程的温度相关模型，代表了马铃薯金线虫的生命周期，包括幼虫、成虫和胞囊/休眠阶段。为了纳入由遗传/环境变异引起的每个阶段所花费时间的变化，该模型基于具有子阶段的常微分方程（ODE）和延迟微分方程（DDE）的混合。通过土壤温度对孵化和幼虫阶段发育和存活速度的影响，将气候变化的影响纳入其中。通过成为成虫的幼虫比例，将 PCN 对植物的抗性水平纳入其中。在将模型与田间数据进行比较后，我们进行了模拟以探索温度和抗性对 PCN 种群的影响。我们发现，随着温度升高和生长季节延长，只要所需的休眠期较短，一个生长季节内就可以产生多代 PCN。尽管如此，我们表明种植抗性马铃薯是一种非常有效的控制策略，种植具有中等抗性水平的马铃薯可以抵消气候变化的影响。
