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优化刚果民主共和国流行区冈比亚锥虫病主动筛查策略的成本效益建模。

Cost-effectiveness modelling to optimise active screening strategy for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in endemic areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

机构信息

Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.

Zeeman Institute (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK.

出版信息

BMC Med. 2021 Apr 1;19(1):86. doi: 10.1186/s12916-021-01943-4.

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been brought under control recently with village-based active screening playing a major role in case reduction. In the approach to elimination, we investigate how to optimise active screening in villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo, such that the expenses of screening programmes can be efficiently allocated whilst continuing to avert morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

We implement a cost-effectiveness analysis using a stochastic gHAT infection model for a range of active screening strategies and, in conjunction with a cost model, we calculate the net monetary benefit (NMB) of each strategy. We focus on the high-endemicity health zone of Kwamouth in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

RESULTS

High-coverage active screening strategies, occurring approximately annually, attain the highest NMB. For realistic screening at 55% coverage, annual screening is cost-effective at very low willingness-to-pay thresholds (20.4 per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted), only marginally higher than biennial screening (14.6 per DALY averted). We find that, for strategies stopping after 1, 2 or 3 years of zero case reporting, the expected cost-benefits are very similar.

CONCLUSIONS

We highlight the current recommended strategy-annual screening with three years of zero case reporting before stopping active screening-is likely cost-effective, in addition to providing valuable information on whether transmission has been interrupted.

摘要

背景

冈比亚锥虫病(gHAT)最近已得到控制,以村落为基础的主动筛查在病例减少方面发挥了重要作用。在消除该病的过程中,我们研究如何优化刚果民主共和国村落中的主动筛查,以便在继续避免发病率和死亡率的同时,有效分配筛查计划的费用。

方法

我们使用冈比亚锥虫感染的随机模型,针对一系列主动筛查策略进行成本效益分析,并结合成本模型,计算每种策略的净货币收益(NMB)。我们专注于刚果民主共和国 Kwamouth 的高流行卫生区。

结果

高覆盖率的主动筛查策略,每年进行一次,可获得最高的 NMB。对于现实的 55%覆盖率的筛查,每年筛查在非常低的支付意愿阈值(每避免一个残疾调整生命年(DALY)的成本为 20.4 美元)下具有成本效益,仅略高于两年筛查(每避免一个 DALY 的成本为 14.6 美元)。我们发现,对于停止主动筛查后零病例报告持续 1、2 或 3 年的策略,预期的成本效益非常相似。

结论

我们强调目前推荐的策略——每年筛查并在三年零病例报告后停止主动筛查——很可能具有成本效益,此外还提供了有关传播是否已中断的有价值信息。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3d66/8017623/c42f23b7581d/12916_2021_1943_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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