Ning Hang, Tang Ming, Chen Hui
State Key Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Subtropical Agro-Bioresources, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China.
College of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China.
Insects. 2021 Mar 12;12(3):242. doi: 10.3390/insects12030242.
Temperature and precipitation are the two main factors constraining the current distribution of . Currently, is mainly distributed in South Xinjiang, where it occurs between the southern edge of the Tianshan Mountains and northern edge of the Tarim Basin. In addition, Dunhuang in northern Gansu also provide suitable habitats for this bark beetle. Two other potential areas for this species are in or near the cities of Alaer and Korla. Under future climate scenarios, its total suitable area is projected to increase markedly over time. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Jiuquan in Gansu is projected to become a suitable area in the 2030s. Subsequently, is expected to enter western Inner Mongolia along the Hexi Corridor in the 2050s. In southeastern Xinjiang, however, the suitable area in northern Ruoqiang and most areas of Korla may decrease. By the 2050s, it is large enough to pose substantial challenges for forest managers across northern China. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.
温度和降水是限制当前[某种物种]分布的两个主要因素。目前，[该物种]主要分布在新疆南部，位于天山山脉南缘和塔里木盆地北缘之间。此外，甘肃北部的敦煌也为这种小蠹虫提供了适宜的栖息地。该物种另外两个潜在分布区域在阿拉尔市和库尔勒市及其附近。在未来气候情景下，其适宜总面积预计将随时间显著增加。在各种气候情景中，在最大温室气体排放情景（代表性浓度路径（RCP）8.5）下分布扩展得最为明显。预计甘肃酒泉在2030年代将成为适宜区域。随后，预计[该物种]将在2050年代沿着河西走廊进入内蒙古西部。然而，在新疆东南部，若羌北部和库尔勒大部分地区的适宜区域可能会减少。到2050年代，其分布范围将大到足以给中国北方的森林管理者带来巨大挑战。我们的研究结果提供了可用于监测[该物种]种群、寄主健康状况以及气候变化影响的信息，有助于了解管理应对措施的有效性。
