Peng Yaqin, Yang Junyi, Xu Danping, Zhuo Zhihang
College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China.
Insects. 2024 Sep 17;15(9):708. doi: 10.3390/insects15090708.
Guer is a major pest affecting bamboo forests economically, causing significant damage to bamboo forests in Sichuan Province, China. To understand how responds to future climate conditions, an optimized Maximum Entropy Model (Maxent) was used to simulate the potential global distribution patterns of under current climate conditions and three different future climate scenarios and to analyze the dominant factors influencing its distribution. The results indicate that Bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), Bio04 (temperature seasonality), Bio06 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), and Bio02 (mean diurnal temperature range) are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of this species. The global area of high-suitability habitats for is 9.00 × 10 km, primarily distributed in China. Under three different future climate scenarios, there are varying degrees of expansion in both the total suitable habitat and the medium-suitability areas for . Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the medium-suitability area of the species increases the most, reaching 9.83 × 10 km. Additionally, these findings can serve as a reference for developing and implementing control strategies, assisting relevant authorities in more effectively managing and controlling this pest, and mitigating its potential threats to bamboo forest ecosystems and economies.
竹蝗是一种对竹林造成重大经济影响的主要害虫，给中国四川省的竹林带来了严重破坏。为了解其对未来气候条件的响应，采用优化的最大熵模型（Maxent）来模拟竹蝗在当前气候条件和三种不同未来气候情景下的潜在全球分布格局，并分析影响其分布的主导因素。结果表明，生物18（最暖季度降水量）、生物04（温度季节性变化）、生物06（最冷月最低温度）和生物02（日平均温度范围）是影响该物种分布的主要环境因素。竹蝗高适宜生境的全球面积为9.00×10平方千米，主要分布在中国。在三种不同的未来气候情景下，竹蝗的总适宜生境和中等适宜生境面积均有不同程度的扩张。在SSP5-8.5情景下，该物种的中等适宜生境面积增加最多，达到9.83×10平方千米。此外，这些研究结果可为制定和实施防治策略提供参考，帮助相关部门更有效地管理和控制这种害虫，并减轻其对竹林生态系统和经济的潜在威胁。
