Zhao Mingzhen, Duan Qian, Shen Xiayang, Zhang Shaoyong
Key Laboratory of Vector Biology and Pathogen Control of Zhejiang Province, College of Life Science, Huzhou University, Huzhou 313000, China.
Insects. 2023 Jan 28;14(2):135. doi: 10.3390/insects14020135.
is the main pest of in South China. The relationship between climate change and outbreak of , and the current and future distribution of are unknown. This study aimed to confirm the effect of climate on population density and the attacked bamboo rate of , using field survey data from 2005 to 2013 in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, and to reveal the potential distribution of under current and future climate conditions using the MaxEnt model. The damage investigation and distribution forecast revealed the following: (1) The mean monthly temperature and maximum temperatures were main factors affecting the population density and the attacked bamboo rate in April in the Anji county of Zhejiang Province; they are all significantly and positively correlated. (2) High suitable area will significantly expand in Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under the future climate circumstances, and the total suitable area will present a decrease because of the precipitation restriction. The significant expansion of high suitable area in the Anhui and Jiangxi Provinces under future climate circumstances means that the affected provinces will face even greater challenges. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the early forecasting and monitoring of pest outbreaks.
是中国南方的主要害虫。气候变化与该害虫爆发之间的关系以及该害虫当前和未来的分布情况尚不清楚。本研究旨在利用浙江省湖州市2005年至2013年的实地调查数据，确认气候对该害虫种群密度和毛竹受害率的影响，并使用最大熵模型揭示该害虫在当前和未来气候条件下的潜在分布。危害调查和分布预测结果如下：（1）月平均温度和最高温度是影响浙江省安吉县4月份该害虫种群密度和毛竹受害率的主要因素；它们均呈显著正相关。（2）在未来气候条件下，安徽省和江西省的高适生区将显著扩大，但由于降水限制，总适生区将有所减少。未来气候条件下安徽省和江西省高适生区的显著扩大意味着受灾省份将面临更大的挑战。这些研究结果为害虫爆发的早期预测和监测提供了理论依据。
