Department of Aviation Management, İstanbul Esenyurt University, İstanbul, Turkey.
Department of Economics, Eskişehir Osmangazi University, Eskişehir, Turkey.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Aug;28(31):42533-42546. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13686-z. Epub 2021 Apr 4.
In recent time, the investigation of the state of environmental quality has largely been conducted with less attention on the situation of environment sustainability especially in different economic regimes (expansion and recession). In the current context, the role of income per capita, energy intensity, and urbanization in driving the ecological footprint of Turkey is examined in the framework of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis over the period of 1990-2015. Considering the potential evidence of regime switching, we employed the Threshold Autoregressive Model (TAR) method with a regime change threshold of 14.43505 per hectare per capita and found that the EKC hypothesis is valid for all the 4 models. Moreover, eight observations are below the threshold value in the first regime while fifteen observations are equal or higher than the threshold value in the second regime. With a threshold per capita income of 9340.1326 USD, the study found that Turkey begin to experience a decline in environmental degradation resulting from income growth in 2015. However, this desirable outcome was short-lived in 2018 because the per capita income slightly decreases to 9340.1326 USD. In addition, increases in energy intensity and urbanization level hamper environmental sustainability drive of the country. The frequency domain causality test further supports the nexus evidence among the implied variables. By virtue of observation, this study offers that the government should work toward achieving a sustainable growth in order to attain the country's environmental sustainability agenda.
近年来，环境质量状况的调查在很大程度上较少关注环境可持续性状况，尤其是在不同的经济体制（扩张和衰退）下。在当前背景下，本文在环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说框架内，考察了人均收入、能源强度和城市化在推动土耳其生态足迹方面的作用，研究期间为 1990-2015 年。考虑到潜在的体制转变证据，我们采用了具有 14.43505 每公顷人均的体制转变阈值的门限自回归模型（TAR）方法，并发现 EKC 假说在所有 4 个模型中都是有效的。此外，在第一体制下，有 8 个观测值低于阈值，而在第二体制下，有 15 个观测值等于或高于阈值。研究发现，土耳其的人均收入达到 9340.1326 美元的门槛值后，2015 年开始经历因收入增长而导致的环境恶化下降，但这种理想的结果在 2018 年短暂出现，因为人均收入略有下降至 9340.1326 美元。此外，能源强度和城市化水平的提高阻碍了该国的环境可持续性发展。频域因果检验进一步支持了隐含变量之间的关联证据。通过观察，本研究表明，政府应努力实现可持续增长，以实现该国的环境可持续性议程。
