Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Tagensvej 16, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, IGE, Grenoble, France.
Nat Commun. 2021 Apr 8;12(1):2106. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22241-w.
Data availability and temporal resolution make it challenging to unravel the anatomy (duration and temporal phasing) of the Last Glacial abrupt climate changes. Here, we address these limitations by investigating the anatomy of abrupt changes using sub-decadal-scale records from Greenland ice cores. We highlight the absence of a systematic pattern in the anatomy of abrupt changes as recorded in different ice parameters. This diversity in the sequence of changes seen in ice-core data is also observed in climate parameters derived from numerical simulations which exhibit self-sustained abrupt variability arising from internal atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions. Our analysis of two ice cores shows that the diversity of abrupt warming transitions represents variability inherent to the climate system and not archive-specific noise. Our results hint that during these abrupt events, it may not be possible to infer statistically-robust leads and lags between the different components of the climate system because of their tight coupling.
数据的可得性和时间分辨率使得揭示末次冰期气候突变的结构（持续时间和时间分相）极具挑战性。在这里，我们通过研究格陵兰冰芯的亚十年尺度记录来解决这些限制。我们强调，在不同的冰参数记录中，突变结构中不存在系统模式。从数值模拟中得出的气候参数中也观察到了冰芯数据中变化序列的这种多样性，这些模拟显示了由内部大气-冰-海洋相互作用引起的自维持突发可变性。我们对两个冰芯的分析表明，突发变暖转变的多样性代表了气候系统固有的可变性，而不是档案特有的噪声。我们的研究结果表明，在这些突发事件中，由于它们的紧密耦合，可能无法在气候系统的不同组成部分之间推断出具有统计学意义的可靠领先和滞后关系。
