Department of General Medicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University, Okayama, Japan.
Department of Pharmaceutical Biomedicine, Graduate School of Medicine, Dentistry, and Pharmaceutical Sciences, Okayama University, Okayama, Japan.
J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2021 Sep;36(9):2486-2492. doi: 10.1111/jgh.15517. Epub 2021 May 1.
The current prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection and hepatitis C virus-associated mortality in Japan falls short of the World Health Organization goal of viral hepatitis elimination by 2030. We aimed to evaluate the trends in hepatitis C virus-associated mortality in Japan.
This nationwide observational study used the Japanese Vital Statistics from 1998 to 2017 and included all Japanese hepatitis C virus-associated deaths (84 936) of adults aged ≥ 40 years. We calculated the crude and age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 persons by age and sex. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changing points in trends and to estimate the annual percentage changes and the average annual percentage changes for the entire study period.
The crude mortality rate per 100 000 persons (annual death number) increased from 5.5 (3548) in 1998 to 7.0 (4843) in 2005 and decreased to 4.0 (3095) in 2017. By 2017, the crude mortality rates per 100 000 persons among men and women had dropped to 3.6 and 4.3, respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate was higher in women than in men. The average annual percentage change was -3.8% (95% confidence interval: -5.0 to -2.5). The declining trend was more rapid in men (-4.5%, 95% confidence interval: -5.3 to -3.6) than in women (-2.7%, 95% confidence interval: -3.8 to -1.6).
Trends in hepatitis C virus-associated mortality rates have declined in an accelerating manner in Japan, especially among men.
目前日本的丙型肝炎病毒感染率和丙型肝炎病毒相关死亡率均未达到 2030 年世卫组织消除病毒性肝炎的目标。本研究旨在评估日本丙型肝炎病毒相关死亡率的趋势。
本项全国性观察性研究使用了 1998 年至 2017 年的日本人口动态统计数据，包括所有年龄≥40 岁的日本丙型肝炎病毒相关死亡病例（84936 例）。我们按年龄和性别计算了每 10 万人的粗死亡率和年龄标准化死亡率。采用 Joinpoint 回归分析确定趋势变化的显著转折点，并估计整个研究期间的年变化百分比和平均年变化百分比。
每 10 万人的粗死亡率（年死亡人数）从 1998 年的 5.5（3548 人）增加到 2005 年的 7.0（4843 人），并在 2017 年下降至 4.0（3095 人）。到 2017 年，男性和女性的粗死亡率分别降至 3.6 和 4.3。女性的年龄标准化死亡率高于男性。平均年变化百分比为-3.8%（95%置信区间：-5.0 至-2.5）。男性的下降趋势（-4.5%，95%置信区间：-5.3 至-3.6）比女性更快（-2.7%，95%置信区间：-3.8 至-1.6）。
日本丙型肝炎病毒相关死亡率的趋势呈加速下降趋势，尤其是在男性中。
