Zhang Jinping, Yang Qin, Zhao Zhengxue, Yu Xiaofei, Wei Jianzhou, Cheng Hua, Zhao Xuechun, Yang Maofa, Jin Baocheng
College of Animal Science, Guizhou University, Guiyang, China.
Institute of Entomology, Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory for Agricultural Pest Management of the Mountainous Region, and College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang, China.
J Insect Sci. 2024 Nov 1;24(6). doi: 10.1093/jisesa/ieae116.
The beet webworm (BWW), Loxostege sticticalis (L.), is a notorious migratory agriculture pest of crops and fodder plants, inducing sudden outbreaks and huge losses of food and forage production. Quantifying its spatiotemporal patterns and possible dynamics under future climate scenarios may have significant implications for management policies and practices against this destructive agriculture pest. In this paper, a database containing nearly 7,000 occurrence records for the spatiotemporal distribution of BWW in China was established and its possible dynamics under future climate scenarios predicted using Maxent. We found that BWW could affect a vast geographic range of Northern China, about one third of the country's land area. The beet webworm overwintered in most of its distribution regions. Maxent model found a northward movement and distribution reduction for BWW in China under future climate scenarios. The occurrence and overwintering regions will move northward about 0.3°N-0.9°N under warming climate scenarios, and about 40%-70% of the suitable habitat and overwintering habitat will disappear by 2100. Most of the northward movement and suitable area reduction likely will happen in 2 decades. Given the vast affected area, the abrupt outbreaks, the diverse host plants, the sensitivity to climate change, as well as their long-distance migration capacity, global scale research, and monitoring the population dynamics of BWW are essential for developing effective management strategies and mitigating its impact on agriculture and ecosystems.
甜菜夜蛾（Loxostege sticticalis (L.)）是一种臭名昭著的迁徙性农业害虫，会危害农作物和饲料植物，导致突然爆发并造成粮食和饲料生产的巨大损失。量化其时空分布模式以及未来气候情景下可能的动态变化，对于针对这种破坏性农业害虫的管理政策和实践可能具有重要意义。本文建立了一个包含近7000条中国甜菜夜蛾时空分布发生记录的数据库，并使用最大熵模型（Maxent）预测了其在未来气候情景下可能的动态变化。我们发现，甜菜夜蛾会影响中国北方广大的地理区域，约占中国陆地面积的三分之一。甜菜夜蛾在其大部分分布区域越冬。最大熵模型发现，在未来气候情景下，中国的甜菜夜蛾将向北移动且分布范围缩小。在气候变暖情景下，其发生和越冬区域将向北移动约0.3°N - 0.9°N，到2100年约40% - 70%的适宜栖息地和越冬栖息地将消失。大部分向北移动和适宜区域减少可能会在20年内发生。鉴于其受影响面积广大、爆发突然、寄主植物多样、对气候变化敏感以及具有远距离迁徙能力，开展全球尺度的研究并监测甜菜夜蛾的种群动态对于制定有效的管理策略以及减轻其对农业和生态系统的影响至关重要。
