Key Laboratory of Beijing for the Control of Forest Pests, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, P. R. China.
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences and MOE Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Peking University, Beijing, P. R. China.
Pest Manag Sci. 2019 Jan;75(1):160-169. doi: 10.1002/ps.5083. Epub 2018 Aug 16.
The international invasive and quarantined defoliating insect Hyphantria cunea Drury (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae) causes huge ecological and economic losses in the world. Furthermore, future climate change may alter the distribution of H. cunea and aggravate the damage. In the present study, we used CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of H. cunea according to both historical climate data (1961-1990) and future climate warming estimates (2011-2100) to define the impact of climate change.
Under the historical climate scenario, we found that H. cunea can survive on every continent, and temperature is the main factor that limits its establishment. With climate change, suitability will increase in middle and high latitude regions, while decrease in the low latitude regions. Moreover, tropic regions will be the most sensitive to climate change impacts for the pest to survive. The impacts of climate change will also increase over time, whether they be positive impacts or negative impacts.
The projected potential distributions provide a theoretical basis for quarantine and control strategies for the management of this pest in each country. Furthermore, these results provide substantial guidance for studies of the effects of climate change on other major forest pests. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.
国际入侵性检疫食叶害虫舞毒蛾（鳞翅目：毒蛾科）在世界范围内造成巨大的生态和经济损失。此外，未来气候变化可能会改变舞毒蛾的分布，并加重其危害。本研究采用 CLIMEX 软件，根据历史气候数据（1961-1990 年）和未来气候变暖预测数据（2011-2100 年）来预测舞毒蛾的潜在全球分布，以确定气候变化的影响。
在历史气候情景下，我们发现舞毒蛾可以在各大洲存活，而温度是限制其分布的主要因素。随着气候变化，中高纬度地区的适宜性将会增加，而低纬度地区的适宜性将会减少。此外，对于该害虫的生存而言，热带地区对气候变化的影响最为敏感。无论气候变化的影响是正面的还是负面的，随着时间的推移，其影响都会增加。
预测的潜在分布为各国对该害虫进行检疫和防治策略提供了理论依据。此外，这些结果为研究气候变化对其他主要森林害虫的影响提供了重要指导。 © 2018 英国化学学会。
