Dept de Agronomia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Avenida P. H. Rolfs, s/n, Viçosa, MG, 36570-900, Brazil.
Dept de Agronomia, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonha e Mucuri, Rodovia MGT 367 - Km 583, Nº 5000, Diamantina, MG, 39100-000, Brazil.
Int J Biometeorol. 2021 Jul;65(7):1137-1149. doi: 10.1007/s00484-021-02094-0. Epub 2021 Apr 12.
Chrysodeixis includens is a polyphagous pest restricted to the American continent. The occurrence of C. includens is allied, among other factors, by favorable conditions such as temperature, humidity, presence of hosts, and migratory behavior. In this work, we built spatiotemporal species distribution models at continental and global levels for the distribution of C. includens using CLIMEX to determine times and regions favorable for year-round survival and migration of this species and in case of invasion on other continents to apply timely and right phytosanitary measures. Our models estimated high climate suitability for C. includens in Central and large proportions of South America throughout the year. Moreover, there is suitability for C. includens growth in all months of the year in Central and northern part of South America. In the northern hemisphere, these conditions range from April to October, while in mid-southern parts of South America, favorable periods comprise October through June. The countries with the highest suitability for C. includens outside the American continent are located on the African and Asian continents. Our results show variable climate suitability for C. includens during the year that help to understand likely migration pattern in North America. This information would direct efforts for appropriate C. includens management during warm and moist periods of the year. Furthermore, our models notify the need for the development of strategies for the inspection and interception of C. includens especially in central Africa, India, South and Southeast Asia, and Northeast Australia.
Chrysodeixis includens 是一种多食物害虫，仅限于美洲大陆。除其他因素外，C.includens 的发生与温度、湿度、寄主存在和迁徙行为等有利条件有关。在这项工作中，我们使用 CLIMEX 为 C.includens 的分布构建了大陆和全球时空物种分布模型，以确定该物种全年生存和迁徙的有利时间和区域，并在该物种入侵其他大陆时及时采取适当的植物检疫措施。我们的模型估计 C.includens 在整个南美洲中部和大部分地区全年的气候适宜度很高。此外，在南美洲中部和北部，C.includens 全年的生长都有适宜性。在北半球，这些条件从 4 月持续到 10 月，而在南美洲中南部，有利时期包括 10 月到 6 月。除美洲大陆以外，非洲和亚洲大陆上最适合 C.includens 生长的国家。我们的结果显示，C.includens 全年的气候适宜性各不相同，有助于了解其在北美的可能迁徙模式。这些信息将有助于在一年中温暖和潮湿的时期对 C.includens 进行适当的管理。此外，我们的模型还通知需要制定检查和拦截 C.includens 的策略，特别是在中非、印度、南亚和东南亚以及澳大利亚东北部。
