Key Laboratory of Ecology and Environment in Minority Areas (Minzu University of China), National Ethnic Affairs Commission, Beijing, 100081, China.
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing, 100081, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Sep;28(33):44916-44935. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13699-8. Epub 2021 Apr 14.
We investigated the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and their components in two distinct ecosystems: the northern grasslands and southern hills in China. The effects of minimum, average, and maximum temperature, and precipitation at monthly, seasonal, and yearly scales on ecosystem services and their components were studied through stepwise multiple regression analysis. The results showed that in the northern grasslands, an increase in the total ecosystem services value (ESV) was mainly attributed to soil conservation, biodiversity, hydrological regulation, and aesthetic landscape. In the southern hills, an increase in total ESV in each region was mainly attributed to climate regulation, environmental purification, biodiversity, and aesthetic landscape. There were strong correlations between ESVs and fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. In the northern grasslands, temperature was the main driving factor of the values from 11 categories of ecosystem services in Anxi, Tumuji, and Xilingol. However, in West Ordos, precipitation negatively affected the change in ESVs. In the southern hills, ESVs were governed by both precipitation and temperature in Huaying. Precipitation variables were an important factor affecting the ESVs in Cili. There was a stronger correlation between temperature and the majority of ESVs in Danjiangkou, Chongyi, and Lechang than precipitation. This paper provides a basis for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on different ecosystem services, and helps to enhance ESV under climate warming.
我们研究了气候变化对中国北方草原和南方丘陵两种不同生态系统的生态系统服务及其组成部分的潜在影响。通过逐步多元回归分析，研究了月、季和年尺度上最小、平均和最高温度以及降水对生态系统服务及其组成部分的影响。结果表明，在北方草原，生态系统服务总价值（ESV）的增加主要归因于土壤保持、生物多样性、水文调节和美学景观。在南方丘陵，每个地区的总 ESV 增加主要归因于气候调节、环境净化、生物多样性和美学景观。ESV 与温度和降水的波动之间存在很强的相关性。在北方草原，温度是安西、土默集、锡林郭勒 11 类生态系统服务价值变化的主要驱动因素。然而，在鄂尔多斯西部，降水对 ESV 的变化产生负面影响。在南方丘陵，降水和温度共同控制着华蓥的生态系统服务价值。降水变量是影响慈利 ESV 的重要因素。在丹江口、崇义、乐昌，温度与大多数 ESV 的相关性比降水更强。本文为更好地了解气候变化对不同生态系统服务的影响提供了依据，并有助于在气候变暖的情况下提高 ESV。
