Newhouse J P
Rand Corporation.
J Health Polit Policy Law. 1988 Summer;13(2):263-78. doi: 10.1215/03616878-13-2-263.
This paper updates tests of the validity of three models of medical price inflation: a standard model, in which changes in demand press against inelastic supply; a dynamic version of the standard model, in which high levels of insurance induce high rates of product innovation and development; and a model of increasing inefficiency, in which consumers have weak incentives to search out efficient suppliers. Earlier statistical support for the third model has weakened, which provides some evidence that the regulatory and competitive initiatives of the last decade are having their intended effects. But time series measures of medical prices upon which the statistical evidence relies have important methodological problems, so other types of evidence are useful. Trends in expenditure in other countries and in HMOs suggest that the most important explanation of medical price inflation is the dynamic version of the standard model, although the other models have some validity as well.
一种标准模型，即需求变化对缺乏弹性的供给形成压力；标准模型的动态版本，即高水平保险促使高比率的产品创新与开发；以及一种效率渐低模型，即消费者缺乏寻找高效供应商的动力。此前对第三种模型的统计支持已有所削弱，这为过去十年的监管及竞争举措正产生预期效果提供了一些证据。但统计证据所依赖的医疗价格时间序列测度存在重要的方法问题，因此其他类型的证据也很有用。其他国家及健康维护组织（HMO）的支出趋势表明，医疗价格通胀的最重要解释是标准模型的动态版本，尽管其他模型也有一定合理性。
