Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Arish University, 45516, Arish, Egypt.
Z Naturforsch C J Biosci. 2021 Apr 19;76(9-10):393-400. doi: 10.1515/znc-2021-0004. Print 2021 Sep 27.
The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. Also, its origin is still mysterious. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19 taking into consideration social distancing and community awareness. Both situations of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous population were considered. Based on the calculations, a sufficient degree of social distancing based on its reproductive ratio is found to be effective in controlling COVID-19, even in the absence of a vaccine. With a vaccine, social distancing minimizes the sufficient vaccination rate to control the disease. Community awareness also has a great impact in eradicating the virus transmission. The model is simulated on small-world networks and the role of social distancing in controlling the infection is explained.
新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情是当前全球重大的健康威胁。到目前为止，还没有完全批准的药物治疗方法或疫苗。此外，其起源仍然神秘。在这项研究中，考虑到社会隔离和社区意识，采用了简单的数学模型来研究 COVID-19 的传播和控制动态。同时考虑了同质和非同质人群两种情况。根据计算结果，发现即使没有疫苗，基于其繁殖率的充分社交距离隔离措施对于控制 COVID-19 是有效的。有了疫苗，社交距离隔离可以将控制疾病所需的最低疫苗接种率降到最低。社区意识在消灭病毒传播方面也有很大的影响。该模型在小世界网络上进行了模拟，并解释了社交距离在控制感染方面的作用。
