Barbier Edward B
Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA.
J Environ Econ Manage. 2021 Jul;108:102451. doi: 10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102451. Epub 2021 Apr 13.
Evidence suggests that emerging infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, originate from wildlife species, and that land-use change is an important pathway for pathogen transmission to humans. We first focus on zoonotic disease spillover and the rate at which primary human cases appear, demonstrating that a potential outbreak is directly related to the area of wildlife habitat. We then develop a model of the costs and benefits of land conversion that includes the effect of habitat size on the risk of disease outbreak. Our model and numerical simulations show that incorporating this risk requires more wildlife habitat conservation in the long run, and how much more should be conserved will depend on the initial habitat size. If the area is too small, then no conversion should take place. Any policy to control habitat loss, such as a tax imposed on the rents from converted land, should also vary with habitat area.
有证据表明，诸如新冠疫情这类新出现的传染病源自野生动物物种，且土地利用变化是病原体传播给人类的一条重要途径。我们首先关注人畜共患疾病的溢出以及首例人类病例出现的速率，证明潜在疫情与野生动物栖息地面积直接相关。然后我们建立了一个土地转换成本与收益的模型，该模型包含栖息地大小对疾病爆发风险的影响。我们的模型和数值模拟表明，从长远来看，将这种风险纳入考量需要更多地保护野生动物栖息地，而需要额外保护的数量将取决于初始栖息地大小。如果面积过小，那么就不应进行转换。任何控制栖息地丧失的政策，例如对已转换土地的租金征税，也应随栖息地面积而变化。
