Murillo Elisa M, Homeyer Cameron R
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma.
J Appl Meteorol Climatol. 2019 May;58(5):947-970. doi: 10.1175/jamc-d-18-0247.1. Epub 2019 May 1.
Severe hail days account for the vast majority of severe weather-induced property losses in the United States each year. In the United States, real-time detection of severe storms is largely conducted using ground-based radar observations, mostly using the operational Next Generation Weather Radar network (NEXRAD), which provides three-dimensional information on the physics and dynamics of storms at ~5-min time intervals. Recent NEXRAD upgrades to higher resolution and to dual-polarization capabilities have provided improved hydrometeor discrimination in real time. New geostationary satellite platforms have also led to significant changes in observing capabilities over the United States beginning in 2016, with spatiotemporal resolution that is comparable to that of NEXRAD. Given these recent improvements, a thorough assessment of their ability to identify hailstorms and hail occurrence and to discriminate between hail sizes is needed. This study provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of existing observational radar and satellite products from more than 10 000 storms objectively identified via radar echo-top tracking and nearly 6000 hail reports during 30 recent severe weather days (2013-present). It is found that radar observations provide the most skillful discrimination between severe and nonsevere hailstorms and identification of individual hail occurrence. Single-polarization and dual-polarization radar observations perform similarly at these tasks, with the greatest skill found from combining both single- and dual-polarization metrics. In addition, revisions to the ''maximum expected size of hail'' (MESH) metric are proposed and are shown to improve spatiotemporal comparisons between reported hail sizes and radar-based estimates for the cases studied.
在美国,每年因恶劣天气导致的财产损失中,严重冰雹天气造成的损失占了绝大部分。在美国,对严重风暴的实时探测主要通过地基雷达观测进行,大多使用业务化的下一代天气雷达网络(NEXRAD),该网络以约5分钟的时间间隔提供风暴物理和动力学的三维信息。NEXRAD最近升级到更高分辨率和双偏振能力,实现了对水凝物的实时鉴别能力的提升。自2016年起,新型地球静止卫星平台也显著改变了美国的观测能力,其时空分辨率与NEXRAD相当。鉴于这些最新进展,有必要对它们识别冰雹风暴、冰雹出现情况以及区分冰雹大小的能力进行全面评估。本研究对通过雷达回波顶跟踪客观识别出的10000多次风暴以及近期30个恶劣天气日(2013年至今)近6000份冰雹报告中的现有观测雷达和卫星产品进行了全面的对比分析。研究发现,雷达观测在区分严重和非严重冰雹风暴以及识别单个冰雹出现方面最为有效。单偏振和双偏振雷达观测在这些任务中的表现相似,将单偏振和双偏振指标结合使用时效果最佳。此外,还提出了对“冰雹最大预期尺寸”(MESH)指标的修订建议,结果表明这些修订能够改善所研究案例中报告的冰雹大小与基于雷达的估计值之间的时空比较。