Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352.
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73072.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Nov;119(44):e2207329119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2207329119. Epub 2022 Oct 17.
Increased wildfire events constitute a significant threat to life and property in the United States. Wildfire impact on severe storms and weather hazards is another pathway that threatens society, and our understanding of which is very limited. Here, we use unique modeling developments to explore the effects of wildfires in the western US (mainly California and Oregon) on precipitation and hail in the central US. We find that the western US wildfires notably increase the occurrences of heavy precipitation rates by 38% and significant severe hail (≥2 in.) by 34% in the central United States. Both heat and aerosols from wildfires play an important role. By enhancing surface high pressure and increasing westerly and southwesterly winds, wildfires in the western United States produce (1) stronger moisture and aerosol transport to the central United States and (2) larger wind shear and storm-relative helicity in the central United States. Both the meteorological environment more conducive to severe convective storms and increased aerosols contribute to the enhancements of heavy precipitation rates and large hail. Moreover, the local wildfires in the central US also enhance the severity of storms, but their impact is notably smaller than the impact of remote wildfires in California and Oregon because of the lessened severity of the local wildfires. As wildfires are projected to be more frequent and severe in a warmer climate, the influence of wildfires on severe weather in downwind regions may become increasingly important.
野火事件的增加对美国的生命和财产构成了重大威胁。野火对恶劣风暴和天气危害的影响是另一个威胁社会的途径,而我们对此的了解非常有限。在这里,我们使用独特的建模发展来探索美国西部(主要是加利福尼亚州和俄勒冈州)的野火对美国中部降水和冰雹的影响。我们发现,美国西部的野火显著增加了美国中部严重降水率(≥38%)和严重冰雹(≥2 英寸)的发生率(34%)。野火产生的热量和气溶胶都起着重要作用。通过增强地表高压并增加西风和西南风,美国西部的野火产生了(1)更强的水汽和气溶胶向美国中部输送,以及(2)美国中部更大的风切变和风暴相对螺旋度。更有利于强对流风暴的气象环境和增加的气溶胶都导致了严重降水率和大冰雹的增加。此外,美国中部的当地野火也加剧了风暴的严重程度,但由于当地野火的严重程度降低,其影响明显小于加利福尼亚州和俄勒冈州远程野火的影响。由于在更温暖的气候下野火将更加频繁和严重,野火对下风区恶劣天气的影响可能变得越来越重要。