Rasul Golam, Nepal Apsara Karki, Hussain Abid, Maharjan Amina, Joshi Surendra, Lama Anu, Gurung Prakriti, Ahmad Farid, Mishra Arabinda, Sharma Eklabya
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal.
Front Sociol. 2021 Feb 24;6:629693. doi: 10.3389/fsoc.2021.629693. eCollection 2021.
The dramatic spread of COVID-19 has threatened human lives, disrupted livelihoods, and affected trade, economy and businesses across the globe. The global economy has begun to show major disruptions and is heading toward a severe recession with an unprecedented economic crisis. As the global economy is highly integrated and interdependent through the global supply chains, it has been profoundly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although all countries have faced difficulties due to Covid-19, South Asian countries in particular have had to deal with a more challenging situation due to their large population, weak health facilities, high poverty rates, low socio-economic conditions, poor social protection systems, limited access to water and sanitation, and inadequate living space, necessary to maintain physical distancing and take other required measures to contain this pandemic. To contain the spread of the virus, South Asian countries have imposed stringent lockdowns, which have consequently affected the lives and livelihoods of millions of people in the region, where a third of world's poor live. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the existing and prospective impacts, risks and challenges of Covid-19 on key social and economic sectors including migration, tourism, informal sector, agriculture and rural livelihoods. The analysis revealed that COVID-19 is likely to affect economic growth, increase fiscal deficit and monetary burden, increase the risks of macroeconomic instability, decrease migration and remittance, reduce income from travel and tourism, and result in dwindling micro-small and medium industries and informal businesses. This is likely to deepen poverty and increase unemployment and the risks of hunger and food insecurity. If not addressed properly, this may reinforce existing inequalities, break social harmony, and increase tension and turbulence. The economic and social costs of the COVID-19 outbreak are therefore likely to be significant and long-lasting in South Asia.
新冠疫情的急剧蔓延威胁到了人类生命，扰乱了生计，并影响了全球的贸易、经济和商业活动。全球经济已开始出现重大混乱，正朝着一场前所未有的经济危机引发的严重衰退发展。由于全球经济通过全球供应链高度一体化且相互依存，它受到了新冠疫情的深刻影响。尽管所有国家都因新冠疫情面临困难，但南亚国家由于人口众多、卫生设施薄弱、贫困率高、社会经济条件差、社会保护体系不完善、获得水和卫生设施的机会有限以及居住空间不足（这些对于保持物理距离和采取其他遏制疫情所需措施至关重要），不得不应对更具挑战性的局面。为了遏制病毒传播，南亚国家实施了严格的封锁措施，这进而影响了该地区数百万人民的生活和生计，全球三分之一的贫困人口生活在这个地区。在此背景下，本文研究了新冠疫情对包括移民、旅游、非正规部门、农业和农村生计在内的关键社会和经济部门的现有及潜在影响、风险和挑战。分析表明，新冠疫情可能会影响经济增长、增加财政赤字和货币负担、加大宏观经济不稳定的风险、减少移民和汇款、降低旅游收入，并导致微型、小型和中型产业以及非正规企业萎缩。这可能会加剧贫困，增加失业以及饥饿和粮食不安全的风险。如果处理不当，这可能会加剧现有的不平等现象，破坏社会和谐，并增加紧张局势和动荡。因此，新冠疫情爆发在南亚可能会带来巨大且持久的经济和社会成本。
