Diet scores and prediction of general and abdominal obesity in the Melbourne collaborative cohort study.

OBJECTIVE

To ascertain which of the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) 2010, Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®) and Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) best predicted BMI and waist-to-hip circumference ratio (WHR).

DESIGN

Body size was measured at baseline (1990-1994) and in 2003-2007. Diet was assessed at baseline using a FFQ, along with age, sex, socio-economic status, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity and country of birth. Regression coefficients and 95 % CI for the association of baseline dietary scores with follow-up BMI and WHR were generated using multivariable linear regression, adjusting for baseline body size, confounders and energy intake.

SETTING

Population-based cohort in Melbourne, Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

Included were data from 11 030 men and 16 774 women aged 40-69 years at baseline.

RESULTS

Median (IQR) follow-up was 11·6 (10·7-12·8) years. BMI and WHR at follow-up were associated with baseline DII® (Q5 v. Q1 (BMI 0·41, 95 % CI 0·21, 0·61) and WHR 0·009, 95 % CI 0·006, 0·013)) and AHEI (Q5 v. Q1 (BMI -0·51, 95 % CI -0·68, -0·35) and WHR -0·011, 95 % CI -0·013, -0·008)). WHR, but not BMI, at follow-up was associated with baseline MDS (Group 3 most Mediterranean v. G1 (BMI -0·05, 95 % CI -0·23, 0·13) and WHR -0·004, 95 % CI -0·007, -0·001)). Based on Akaike's Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion statistics, AHEI was a stronger predictor of body size than the other diet scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor quality or pro-inflammatory diets predicted overall and central obesity. The AHEI may provide the best way to assess the obesogenic potential of diet.