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使用机器学习方法预测新冠病毒疾病(COVID-19)的增长和趋势。

Prediction of COVID-19 growth and trend using machine learning approach.

作者信息

Gothai E, Thamilselvan R, Rajalaxmi R R, Sadana R M, Ragavi A, Sakthivel R

机构信息

Department of Computer Science Engineering, Kongu Engineering College, India.

出版信息

Mater Today Proc. 2023;81:597-601. doi: 10.1016/j.matpr.2021.04.051. Epub 2021 Apr 15.

DOI:10.1016/j.matpr.2021.04.051
PMID:33880331
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8049379/
Abstract

The Covid-19 Corona Virus, also known as SARS-CoV-2, has wreaked havoc around the world, and the condition is only getting worse. It is a pandemic disease spreading from person-to-person every day. Therefore, it is important to keep track the number of patients being affected. The current system gives the computerized data in a collective way which is very difficult to analyze and predict the growth of disease in a particular area and in the world. Machine learning algorithms can be used to successfully map the disease and its progression to solve this problem. Machine Learning, a branch of computer science, is critical in correctly distinguishing patients with the condition by analyzing their chest X-ray photographs. Supervised Machine learning models with associated algorithms (like LR, SVR and Time series algorithms) to analyze data for regression and classification helps in training the model to predict the number of total number of global confirmed cases who will be prone to the disease in the upcoming days. In this proposed work, the overall dataset of the world is being collected, preprocessed and the number of confirmed cases up to a particular date are extracted which is given as the training set to the model. The model is being trained by supervised machine learning algorithms to predict the growth of cases in the upcoming days. The experimental setup with the above mentioned algorithms shows that Time series Holt's model outperforms Linear Regression and Support Vector Regression algorithms.

摘要

新冠病毒,也被称为严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2),在全球范围内肆虐,而且情况还在恶化。它是一种每天都在人际传播的大流行病。因此,追踪受影响患者的数量很重要。当前系统以汇总的方式提供计算机化数据,这很难分析和预测特定地区及全球范围内疾病的发展情况。机器学习算法可用于成功绘制疾病及其发展进程,以解决这个问题。机器学习作为计算机科学的一个分支,通过分析患者的胸部X光照片来正确区分患病患者至关重要。带有相关算法(如逻辑回归、支持向量回归和时间序列算法)的监督式机器学习模型用于分析数据以进行回归和分类,有助于训练模型预测未来几天可能感染该疾病的全球确诊病例总数。在这项拟议的工作中,正在收集全球的总体数据集,进行预处理,并提取截至特定日期的确诊病例数,将其作为训练集提供给模型。该模型通过监督式机器学习算法进行训练,以预测未来几天病例的增长情况。使用上述算法的实验设置表明,时间序列霍尔特模型优于线性回归和支持向量回归算法。

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