CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Sci Rep. 2021 Apr 23;11(1):8826. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-87358-w.
Global climate change will alter wind sea and swell waves, modifying the severity, frequency and impact of episodic coastal flooding and morphological change. Global-scale estimates of increases to coastal impacts have been typically attributed to sea level rise and not specifically to changes to waves on their own. This study provides a reduced complexity method for applying projected extreme wave changes to local scale impact studies. We use non-stationary extreme value analysis to distil an incremental change signal in extreme wave heights and associate this with a change in the frequency of events globally. Extreme wave heights are not projected to increase everywhere. We find that the largest increases will typically be experienced at higher latitudes, and that there is high ensemble model agreement on an increase (doubling of events) for the waters south of Australia, the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Guinea by the end of the twenty-first century.
全球气候变化将改变风浪，从而改变突发性沿海洪水和地貌变化的严重程度、频率和影响。通常情况下，对沿海影响的全球范围估计归因于海平面上升，而不是单独归因于波高的变化。本研究提供了一种简化的方法，可将预计的极端波变化应用于局部尺度的影响研究。我们使用非平稳极值分析来提取极端波高的增量变化信号，并将其与全球事件频率的变化相关联。预计并非所有地方的极端波高都会增加。我们发现，最大的增加通常出现在高纬度地区，而且在二十一世纪末，澳大利亚南部、阿拉伯海和几内亚湾的水域的极端波高事件发生概率（翻倍）的集合模型有很高的一致性。
